FC Utrecht vs. NEC: Both Teams to Score

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (22%) · Yes at 67¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 8

Yes67¢No33¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 22%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

$62.52

Smart Money Entry

60.4¢ → 66.5¢

+10% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes67%

No34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$660

Total Shares1,000

Combined PnL+$55.75

No7 traders

Total Value$387.13

Total Shares1,142

Combined PnL+$6.77

Yes — 22%No — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 67.4¢	$600	$396	-$8.25	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles	Yesavg 50¢	$841	$264	+$64	56% 193-149 (342)
VE VenusianCTR	Noavg 33.4¢	$520	$176.8	+$2.9	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Noavg 33.4¢	$79.33	$80.7	+$1.37	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 33¢	$56.76	$57.61	+$0.86	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Noavg 32¢	$125	$42.5	+$2.5	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Noavg 34¢	$50	$17	+$0	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Noavg 36.1¢	$9.98	$9.12	-$0.87	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 34¢	$10	$3.4	+$0	51% 27916-27361 (55277)

VeryLucky888

Yes

Invested

$600

Value

$396

PnL

-$8.25

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singles

Yes

Invested

$841

Value

$264

PnL

+$64

Record

56%

193-149 (342)

VenusianCTR

Invested

$520

Value

$176.8

PnL

+$2.9

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Invested

$79.33

Value

$80.7

PnL

+$1.37

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$56.76

Value

$57.61

PnL

+$0.86

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

MadridTimeCTR

Invested

$125

Value

$42.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

LimousinCTR<$100

Invested

$50

Value

$17

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Invested

$9.98

Value

$9.12

PnL

-$0.87

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$10

Value

$3.4

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 67%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.