Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (68%). 3 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will FC Twente win on 2026-11-08?

3 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 32¢ · $17K held · ended Nov 8

Yes32¢No68¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 25%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.6K

Combined PnL

$-3.5K

Smart Money Entry

52.1¢ → 32¢

-39% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 32%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 12 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors No 68%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes32%

No68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$7.5K

Total Shares23,378

Combined PnL$-4.7K

No9 traders

Total Value$8.7K

Total Shares13,860

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Yes — 25%No — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BL Bloodygoodrep1CTR	Yesavg 52.1¢	$12.2K	$7.5K	$-4.7K	48% 44-48 (92)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 51.1¢	$3.3K	$4.0K	+$752.19	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 48.9¢	$1.6K	$2.1K	+$576.48	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
GC GC-P	Noavg 49.1¢	$847.49	$803.02	-$44.47	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
NM NM-P	Noavg 49.2¢	$804.68	$760.23	-$44.44	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
SE sentrio	Noavg 49.4¢	$537.81	$506.33	-$31.49	50% 26504-26107 (52611)
RN1ARB<$100	Noavg 64.7¢	$264.53	$269.51	+$4.98	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
└ No leg	Noavg 64.7¢	$188.21	$197.69	+$9.47
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 34¢	$76.31	$71.83	-$4.49
38 38791873984189	Noavg 63.5¢	$187.89	$198.17	+$10.28	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 49¢	$201.1	$186	-$10	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Noavg 63.4¢	$112.68	$100.47	+$5.04	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
└ No leg	Noavg 63.4¢	$63.83	$67.97	+$5.54
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 33¢	$33	$32.5	-$0.5
0xheavy888<$100	Noavg 49¢	$98	$99	+$1	56% 8260-6557 (14817)
LO lonmi2511<$100	Noavg 46¢	$16.56	$24.48	+$7.92	55% 1428-1180 (2608)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 44.2¢	$10.83	$9.3	-$1.52	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Yesavg 49¢	$2.45	$1.9	-$0.55	52% 9022-8174 (17196)

Bloodygoodrep1CTR

Yes

Invested

$12,168.75

Value

$7.5K

PnL

$-4.7K

Record

48%

44-48 (92)

Flaznorp

Invested

$3,268.82

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$752.19

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$1,550.89

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$576.48

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

GC-P

Invested

$847.49

Value

$803.02

PnL

-$44.47

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

NM-P

Invested

$804.68

Value

$760.23

PnL

-$44.44

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

sentrio

Invested

$537.81

Value

$506.33

PnL

-$31.49

Record

50%

26504-26107 (52611)

RN1ARB<$100

Invested

$264.53

Value

$269.51

PnL

+$4.98

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

Both legs:

No$188.2164.7¢+$9.47

Yes$76.3134¢-$4.49

38791873984189

Invested

$187.89

Value

$198.17

PnL

+$10.28

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$201.1

Value

$186

PnL

-$10

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

Pan9XARB<$100

Invested

$112.68

Value

$100.47

PnL

+$5.04

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

Both legs:

No$63.8363.4¢+$5.54

Yes$3333¢-$0.5

0xheavy888<$100

Invested

$98

Value

$99

PnL

+$1

Record

56%

8260-6557 (14817)

lonmi2511<$100

Invested

$16.56

Value

$24.48

PnL

+$7.92

Record

55%

1428-1180 (2608)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.83

Value

$9.3

PnL

-$1.52

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.45

Value

$1.9

PnL

-$0.55

Record

52%

9022-8174 (17196)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 32%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 12 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors No 68%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance34.1%

32.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$193.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

293.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.