Spread: FC Twente (-1.5)

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold AFC Ajax (42%) · AFC Ajax at 93¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 8

FC Twente7¢AFC Ajax93¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

AFC Ajax

Consensus Traders

AFC Ajax 42%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.3K

Combined PnL

$575.59

Smart Money Entry

79¢ → 93¢

+18% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralAFC Ajax at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

AFC Ajax

5 of 12 top traders (42%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

FC Twente7%

AFC Ajax93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

AFC Ajax5 traders

Total Value$6.7K

Total Shares7,371

Combined PnL+$613.13

FC Twente7 traders

Total Value$710.1

Total Shares2,814

Combined PnL-$37.54

AFC Ajax — 42%FC Twente — 58%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xB985b597F5598a975C42032749386D765826B70d-1781959038065	AFC Ajaxavg 84¢	$3.7K	$3.9K	+$218.9	65% 265-145 (410)
0xheavy888	AFC Ajaxavg 71¢	$852	$1.7K	+$336.68	56% 8260-6557 (14817)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	FC Twenteavg 19.2¢	$1.2K	$913.98	-$264.8	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
└ AFC Ajax leg	AFC Ajaxavg 75.2¢	$486.81	$588.96	+$102.15
└ FC Twente leg	FC Twenteavg 19.2¢	$691.97	$325.02	-$366.95
GO GoalLineGhost	AFC Ajaxavg 72.2¢	$861.59	$905.24	+$43.65	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
VE VenusianCTR	FC Twenteavg 31¢	$400.56	$406.38	+$5.82	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
38 38791873984189	AFC Ajaxavg 78.5¢	$141.36	$155.18	+$13.82	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
LI LimousinCTR	FC Twenteavg 31¢	$104.24	$105.92	+$1.68	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	FC Twenteavg 30¢	$92.97	$88.23	-$4.74	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
RN1CTR	FC Twenteavg 16¢	$120.64	$82.94	-$37.7	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	FC Twenteavg 29.4¢	$16.5	$17.69	+$1.19	50% 26504-26107 (52611)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	FC Twenteavg 14¢	$6.73	$6.73	+$0	51% 38648-37820 (76468)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	AFC Ajaxavg 70¢	$3.5	$3.57	+$0.07	52% 9022-8174 (17196)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	FC Twenteavg 30¢	$6	$2.2	-$3.8	48% 1776-1912 (3688)

0xB985b597F5598a975C42032749386D765826B70d-1781959038065

AFC Ajax

Invested

$3,677.52

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$218.9

Record

65%

265-145 (410)

0xheavy888

AFC Ajax

Invested

$852

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$336.68

Record

56%

8260-6557 (14817)

FlaznorpARB<$100

FC Twente

Invested

$1,178.78

Value

$913.98

PnL

-$264.8

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

Both legs:

AFC Ajax$486.8175.2¢+$102.15

FC Twente$691.9719.2¢-$366.95

GoalLineGhost

AFC Ajax

Invested

$861.59

Value

$905.24

PnL

+$43.65

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

VenusianCTR

FC Twente

Invested

$400.56

Value

$406.38

PnL

+$5.82

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

38791873984189

AFC Ajax

Invested

$141.36

Value

$155.18

PnL

+$13.82

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

LimousinCTR

FC Twente

Invested

$104.24

Value

$105.92

PnL

+$1.68

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

FC Twente

Invested

$92.97

Value

$88.23

PnL

-$4.74

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

RN1CTR

FC Twente

Invested

$120.64

Value

$82.94

PnL

-$37.7

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

sentrioCTR<$100

FC Twente

Invested

$16.5

Value

$17.69

PnL

+$1.19

Record

50%

26504-26107 (52611)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

FC Twente

Invested

$6.73

Value

$6.73

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

38648-37820 (76468)

ameisgoat11<$100

AFC Ajax

Invested

$3.5

Value

$3.57

PnL

+$0.07

Record

52%

9022-8174 (17196)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

FC Twente

Invested

Value

$2.2

PnL

-$3.8

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

Research grade

NeutralAFC Ajax at 93%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

AFC Ajax

5 of 12 top traders (42%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that AFC Ajax wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.3%

93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.