Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-11-08?
10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 75¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 100%
$7.6K
$212.42
71.5¢ → 74.5¢
+4% since entry · 10 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
10 of 10 top traders (100%)7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 71.5¢ | $5.9K | $6.1K | +$227.3 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 72¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | +$7.18 | 50% 29172-29037 (58209) |
 0xheavy888 | Noavg 72¢ | $144 | $145 | +$1 | 56% 8260-6557 (14817) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 69.1¢ | $96.03 | $82.71 | -$13.33 | 50% 1850-1866 (3716) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 68.1¢ | $75.23 | $65.72 | -$9.51 | 49% 1800-1902 (3702) |
GC GC-P<$100 | Noavg 71.3¢ | $36.95 | $38.6 | +$1.66 | 64% 10184-5783 (15967) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $26.64 | $26.83 | +$0.18 | 54% 10485-8797 (19282) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 74.4¢ | $20.98 | $21.01 | +$0.03 | 48% 1776-1912 (3688) |
 rayvanmechelen<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $19.43 | $17.26 | -$2.18 | 53% 2714-2387 (5101) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $11.38 | $11.46 | +$0.08 | 51% 38648-37820 (76468) |
Invested
$5,902.77
Value
$6.1K
PnL
+$227.3
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
Invested
$1,034.5
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$7.18
Record
50%
29172-29037 (58209)
0xheavy888Invested
$144
Value
$145
PnL
+$1
Record
56%
8260-6557 (14817)
Invested
$96.03
Value
$82.71
PnL
-$13.33
Record
50%
1850-1866 (3716)
Invested
$75.23
Value
$65.72
PnL
-$9.51
Record
49%
1800-1902 (3702)
Invested
$36.95
Value
$38.6
PnL
+$1.66
Record
64%
10184-5783 (15967)
Invested
$26.64
Value
$26.83
PnL
+$0.18
Record
54%
10485-8797 (19282)
Invested
$20.98
Value
$21.01
PnL
+$0.03
Record
48%
1776-1912 (3688)
rayvanmechelen<$100Invested
$19.43
Value
$17.26
PnL
-$2.18
Record
53%
2714-2387 (5101)
Invested
$11.38
Value
$11.46
PnL
+$0.08
Record
51%
38648-37820 (76468)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.