Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (61%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
SBV Excelsior vs. Go Ahead Eagles: O/U 2.5
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 40¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 100%
$1.1K
-$9.04
37.8¢ → 39.5¢
+5% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 40%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 61%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+17 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 76%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Underavg 38¢ | $625.23 | $608.78 | -$16.45 | 51% 27227-25781 (53008) |
TH TheComboConnoisseurCTR | Underavg 37¢ | $185 | $185 | +$12.5 | 53% 1125-987 (2112) |
SE sentrioCTR | Underavg 38¢ | $146.7 | $143.05 | -$3.65 | 50% 26409-26025 (52434) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 37.4¢ | $127.3 | $112.1 | -$1.39 | 58% 47503-34297 (81800) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Underavg 38¢ | $1.9 | $1.85 | -$0.05 | 52% 9018-8169 (17187) |
Invested
$625.23
Value
$608.78
PnL
-$16.45
Record
51%
27227-25781 (53008)
Invested
$185
Value
$185
PnL
+$12.5
Record
53%
1125-987 (2112)
Invested
$146.7
Value
$143.05
PnL
-$3.65
Record
50%
26409-26025 (52434)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$127.3
Value
$112.1
PnL
-$1.39
Record
58%
47503-34297 (81800)
Invested
$1.9
Value
$1.85
PnL
-$0.05
Record
52%
9018-8169 (17187)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
39.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.