Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden, while the market favors PSV (56%). 3 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: PSV (-2.5)

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden (33%) · SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden at 45¢ · $501 held · ended Nov 8

PSV56¢SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden44¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden

Consensus Traders

SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden 33%

Total Value

$501.15

Combined PnL

$115.89

Smart Money Entry

71.1¢ → 44.5¢

-37% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralSC Cambuur-Leeuwarden at 45%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors PSV 56%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

PSV56%

SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden3 traders

Total Value$158.43

Total Shares219

Combined PnL+$2.74

PSV6 traders

Total Value$342.72

Total Shares516

Combined PnL+$113.16

SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden — 33%PSV — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
rayvanmechelenCTR	SC Cambuur-Leeuwardenavg 71.1¢	$137.84	$140.65	+$2.81	53% 2714-2387 (5101)
RN1	PSVavg 57¢	$79.8	$112.7	+$32.9	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
38 38791873984189<$100	PSVavg 57¢	$57	$80.5	+$23.5	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
MA MadridTime<$100	PSVavg 32.5¢	$44.74	$69.52	+$24.79	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
SN SnakeBall<$100	PSVavg 33.6¢	$38.51	$66.01	+$27.5	51% 38648-37820 (76468)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	SC Cambuur-Leeuwardenavg 72¢	$14.4	$14.5	+$0.1	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	PSVavg 37.5¢	$7.92	$12.27	+$4.35	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	SC Cambuur-Leeuwardenavg 69¢	$3.45	$3.28	-$0.17	52% 9022-8174 (17196)
LI Limousin<$100	PSVavg 32.1¢	$1.6	$1.72	+$0.12	50% 1850-1866 (3716)

rayvanmechelenCTR

SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden

Invested

$137.84

Value

$140.65

PnL

+$2.81

Record

53%

2714-2387 (5101)

RN1

PSV

Invested

$79.8

Value

$112.7

PnL

+$32.9

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

38791873984189<$100

PSV

Invested

$57

Value

$80.5

PnL

+$23.5

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

MadridTime<$100

PSV

Invested

$44.74

Value

$69.52

PnL

+$24.79

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

SnakeBall<$100

PSV

Invested

$38.51

Value

$66.01

PnL

+$27.5

Record

51%

38648-37820 (76468)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden

Invested

$14.4

Value

$14.5

PnL

+$0.1

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

GoalLineGhost<$100

PSV

Invested

$7.92

Value

$12.27

PnL

+$4.35

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden

Invested

$3.45

Value

$3.28

PnL

-$0.17

Record

52%

9022-8174 (17196)

Limousin<$100

PSV

Invested

$1.6

Value

$1.72

PnL

+$0.12

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

Research grade

NeutralSC Cambuur-Leeuwarden at 45%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors PSV 56%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.7%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$113.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

214.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.