Spread: AZ (-1.5)

9 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold FC Groningen (64%) · FC Groningen at 87¢ · $29K held · ended Nov 8

AZ13¢FC Groningen87¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

FC Groningen

Consensus Traders

FC Groningen 64%

Total Value

$29.0K

Combined PnL

$4.2K

Smart Money Entry

57.3¢ → 87.4¢

+53% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralFC Groningen at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

FC Groningen

9 of 14 top traders (64%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

AZ13%

FC Groningen87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

FC Groningen9 traders

Total Value$26.5K

Total Shares35,356

Combined PnL+$5.5K

AZ5 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares8,915

Combined PnL$-1.3K

FC Groningen — 64%AZ — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on FC Groningen. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFC Groningen 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrFC Groningen 80% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedFC Groningen 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000FC Groningen 69% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34	FC Groningenavg 57.8¢	$8.4K	$10.4K	+$2.1K	48% 214-236 (450)
RN1	FC Groningenavg 56¢	$8.5K	$6.1K	+$1.4K	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
FL Flaznorp	FC Groningenavg 59.2¢	$3.0K	$4.3K	+$1.3K	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
SE sentrio	FC Groningenavg 56¢	$3.0K	$2.1K	+$442.33	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
VE VenusianCTR	AZavg 42¢	$7.0K	$2.0K	-$981.46	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
GO GoalLineGhost	FC Groningenavg 56¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$30.12	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
RA rabbitfoot1	FC Groningenavg 57¢	$1.7K	$1.2K	+$248.01	54% 1253-1065 (2318)
SN SnakeBall	FC Groningenavg 57.5¢	$715.36	$453.1	+$63.5	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
VeryLucky888CTR	AZavg 42.5¢	$1.5K	$336	-$174	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
0xheavy888	FC Groningenavg 56¢	$112	$144	+$32	56% 8592-6809 (15401)
LI LightParadoxCTR	AZavg 42¢	$258	$72.24	-$36.12	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
LI LimousinCTR	AZavg 44¢	$252.27	$70.64	-$40.36	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
38 38791873984189CTR	AZavg 42.3¢	$471	$54.36	-$27.85	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	FC Groningenavg 57¢	$5	$3.6	+$0.75	52% 9470-8570 (18040)

1l2ihj34li12u34

FC Groningen

Invested

$8,383.72

Value

$10.4K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

48%

214-236 (450)

RN1

FC Groningen

Invested

$8,503.19

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

Flaznorp

FC Groningen

Invested

$3,046.34

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

sentrio

FC Groningen

Invested

$2,976.34

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$442.33

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

VenusianCTR

Invested

$7,010.5

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$981.46

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

GoalLineGhost

FC Groningen

Invested

$1,678.49

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$30.12

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

rabbitfoot1

FC Groningen

Invested

$1,653.39

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$248.01

Record

54%

1253-1065 (2318)

SnakeBall

FC Groningen

Invested

$715.36

Value

$453.1

PnL

+$63.5

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$1,500

Value

$336

PnL

-$174

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

0xheavy888

FC Groningen

Invested

$112

Value

$144

PnL

+$32

Record

56%

8592-6809 (15401)

LightParadoxCTR

Invested

$258

Value

$72.24

PnL

-$36.12

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

LimousinCTR

Invested

$252.27

Value

$70.64

PnL

-$40.36

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

38791873984189CTR

Invested

$471

Value

$54.36

PnL

-$27.85

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

ameisgoat11<$100

FC Groningen

Invested

Value

$3.6

PnL

+$0.75

Record

52%

9470-8570 (18040)

Research grade

NeutralFC Groningen at 87%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

FC Groningen

9 of 14 top traders (64%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on FC Groningen. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFC Groningen 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrFC Groningen 80% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedFC Groningen 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000FC Groningen 69% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that FC Groningen wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.9%

87.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.