Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-10-31?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 61¢ · $605 held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 33%
$605.27
-$2.9
62¢ → 60.5¢
-2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 61%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
-7 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DA darkumbreon88 | Yesavg 62¢ | $317.95 | $310.26 | -$7.69 | 65% 1702-925 (2627) |
 fyrskenCTR | Noavg 39¢ | $194.99 | $194.99 | +$2.5 | 49% 276-287 (563) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Noavg 39¢ | $68.66 | $69.54 | +$0.88 | 46% 8032-9481 (17513) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Noavg 37¢ | $19.48 | $20.54 | +$1.32 | 53% 15887-14071 (29958) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 61¢ | $6.1 | $6.05 | +$0.05 | 52% 4041-3673 (7714) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Noavg 39¢ | $3.9 | $3.9 | +$0.05 | 47% 2277-2560 (4837) |
Invested
$317.95
Value
$310.26
PnL
-$7.69
Record
65%
1702-925 (2627)
fyrskenCTRInvested
$194.99
Value
$194.99
PnL
+$2.5
Record
49%
276-287 (563)
Invested
$68.66
Value
$69.54
PnL
+$0.88
Record
46%
8032-9481 (17513)
Invested
$19.48
Value
$20.54
PnL
+$1.32
Record
53%
15887-14071 (29958)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$6.1
Value
$6.05
PnL
+$0.05
Record
52%
4041-3673 (7714)
Invested
$3.9
Value
$3.9
PnL
+$0.05
Record
47%
2277-2560 (4837)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.