Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5)

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Sunderland AFC (90%) · Sunderland AFC at 73¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 8

Chelsea FC28¢Sunderland AFC72¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Sunderland AFC

Consensus Traders

Sunderland AFC 90%

Total Value

$5.2K

Combined PnL

-$66.44

Smart Money Entry

74.5¢ → 72.5¢

-3% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralSunderland AFC at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Sunderland AFC

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Chelsea FC28%

Sunderland AFC73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Sunderland AFC9 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares5,940

Combined PnL-$115.17

Chelsea FC1 trader

Total Value$888.2

Total Shares2,940

Combined PnL+$48.73

Sunderland AFC — 90%Chelsea FC — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Mature

48h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Sunderland AFC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSunderland AFC 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrSunderland AFC 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Sunderland AFC 100% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Sunderland AFCavg 74.5¢	$2.3K	$1.8K	-$57.47	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
38 38791873984189	Sunderland AFCavg 74.3¢	$960.51	$936.7	-$23.81	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Chelsea FCavg 25.7¢	$839.46	$888.2	+$48.73	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
SE sentrio	Sunderland AFCavg 74¢	$707.3	$692.88	-$14.43	50% 26504-26107 (52611)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Sunderland AFCavg 75¢	$450	$435	-$15	51% 2062-2000 (4062)
GO GoalLineGhost	Sunderland AFCavg 75¢	$282.03	$292.54	-$1.75	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
GH ghorrock	Sunderland AFCavg 74.6¢	$126.01	$81.16	-$2.05	58% 23579-16943 (40522)
0xheavy888<$100	Sunderland AFCavg 73¢	$31.5	$31.28	-$0.22	56% 8260-6557 (14817)
nigiri99<$100	Sunderland AFCavg 75.9¢	$21.26	$20.72	-$0.14	46% 8770-10464 (19234)
PA Pan9X<$100	Sunderland AFCavg 74¢	$15.54	$15.23	-$0.31	54% 10485-8797 (19282)

VeryLucky888

Sunderland AFC

Invested

$2,299.62

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$57.47

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

38791873984189

Sunderland AFC

Invested

$960.51

Value

$936.7

PnL

-$23.81

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

FlaznorpCTR

Chelsea FC

Invested

$839.46

Value

$888.2

PnL

+$48.73

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

sentrio

Sunderland AFC

Invested

$707.3

Value

$692.88

PnL

-$14.43

Record

50%

26504-26107 (52611)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Sunderland AFC

Invested

$450

Value

$435

PnL

-$15

Record

51%

2062-2000 (4062)

GoalLineGhost

Sunderland AFC

Invested

$282.03

Value

$292.54

PnL

-$1.75

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

ghorrock

Sunderland AFC

Invested

$126.01

Value

$81.16

PnL

-$2.05

Record

58%

23579-16943 (40522)

0xheavy888<$100

Sunderland AFC

Invested

$31.5

Value

$31.28

PnL

-$0.22

Record

56%

8260-6557 (14817)

nigiri99<$100

Sunderland AFC

Invested

$21.26

Value

$20.72

PnL

-$0.14

Record

46%

8770-10464 (19234)

Pan9X<$100

Sunderland AFC

Invested

$15.54

Value

$15.23

PnL

-$0.31

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

Research grade

NeutralSunderland AFC at 73%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Sunderland AFC

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Mature

48h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Sunderland AFC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSunderland AFC 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrSunderland AFC 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Sunderland AFC 100% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Sunderland AFC wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.