Exact Score: Sunderland AFC 1 - 3 Chelsea FC?
7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 96¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 64%
$3.2K
$37.48
94.8¢ → 95.7¢
+1% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 94.8¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$0.67 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 94.7¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | +$8.98 | 48% 63191-68207 (131398) |
MA MadridTime | Noavg 95.1¢ | $193 | $193.14 | +$0.14 | 48% 1776-1912 (3688) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 94.8¢ | $165.35 | $166.15 | +$0.8 | 64% 10183-5729 (15912) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 94.8¢ | $122.6 | $116.51 | -$6.09 | 64% 10184-5783 (15967) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 94.9¢ | $66.11 | $64.63 | -$1.49 | 49% 1844-1936 (3780) |
LO lovedudleyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $13.89 | $52 | +$38.11 | 28% 1154-3035 (4189) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.6¢ | $31.45 | $29.11 | -$2.34 | 50% 1850-1866 (3716) |
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 95.4¢ | $20.74 | $20.79 | +$0.05 | 53% 63014-55227 (118241) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.7¢ | $10.71 | $9.85 | -$0.86 | 49% 1800-1902 (3702) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.2¢ | $1.07 | $1.92 | +$0.84 | 49% 15008-15929 (30937) |
Invested
$1,542.11
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$0.67
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
Invested
$1,037.2
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$8.98
Record
48%
63191-68207 (131398)
Invested
$193
Value
$193.14
PnL
+$0.14
Record
48%
1776-1912 (3688)
Invested
$165.35
Value
$166.15
PnL
+$0.8
Record
64%
10183-5729 (15912)
Invested
$122.6
Value
$116.51
PnL
-$6.09
Record
64%
10184-5783 (15967)
Invested
$66.11
Value
$64.63
PnL
-$1.49
Record
49%
1844-1936 (3780)
Invested
$13.89
Value
$52
PnL
+$38.11
Record
28%
1154-3035 (4189)
Invested
$31.45
Value
$29.11
PnL
-$2.34
Record
50%
1850-1866 (3716)
RN1<$100Invested
$20.74
Value
$20.79
PnL
+$0.05
Record
53%
63014-55227 (118241)
Invested
$10.71
Value
$9.85
PnL
-$0.86
Record
49%
1800-1902 (3702)
Invested
$1.07
Value
$1.92
PnL
+$0.84
Record
49%
15008-15929 (30937)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.