Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-11-08?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 51¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 8

Yes50¢No50¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.8K

Combined PnL

-$59.96

Smart Money Entry

51.3¢ → 50.5¢

-2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes50%

No51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares8,472

Combined PnL-$57.81

Yes3 traders

Total Value$477.47

Total Shares974

Combined PnL-$2.15

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Noavg 51.2¢	$2.7K	$2.6K	-$35.25	58% 46962-33856 (80818)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Noavg 50.6¢	$915.15	$916.33	+$1.18	64% 10038-5607 (15645)
└ No leg	Noavg 50.6¢	$670.15	$668.83	-$1.32
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 49¢	$245	$247.5	+$2.5
GC GC-P	Noavg 50.6¢	$745.93	$740.18	-$5.75	64% 10074-5680 (15754)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 52¢	$477.83	$536.34	+$3.55	51% 26251-24882 (51133)
OM omnibus-076daa	Noavg 52.2¢	$470.57	$450.31	-$20.26	50% 21308-21583 (42891)
DA darkumbreon88CTR	Yesavg 48¢	$337.28	$344.3	-$3.51	64% 2003-1115 (3118)
CA CannaeCTR	Yesavg 49¢	$112.75	$112.75	+$1.15	53% 16906-15021 (31927)
0X 0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100	Yesavg 49.2¢	$20.52	$20.42	+$0.21	33% 1177-2341 (3518)
38 38791873984189<$100	Noavg 51¢	$10.38	$10.28	-$0.1	48% 61607-66479 (128086)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$2,707.23

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$35.25

Record

58%

46962-33856 (80818)

NM-PARB<$100

Invested

$915.15

Value

$916.33

PnL

+$1.18

Record

64%

10038-5607 (15645)

Both legs:

No$670.1550.6¢-$1.32

Yes$24549¢+$2.5

GC-P

Invested

$745.93

Value

$740.18

PnL

-$5.75

Record

64%

10074-5680 (15754)

Flaznorp

Invested

$477.83

Value

$536.34

PnL

+$3.55

Record

51%

26251-24882 (51133)

omnibus-076daa

Invested

$470.57

Value

$450.31

PnL

-$20.26

Record

50%

21308-21583 (42891)

darkumbreon88CTR

Yes

Invested

$337.28

Value

$344.3

PnL

-$3.51

Record

64%

2003-1115 (3118)

CannaeCTR

Yes

Invested

$112.75

Value

$112.75

PnL

+$1.15

Record

53%

16906-15021 (31927)

0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.52

Value

$20.42

PnL

+$0.21

Record

33%

1177-2341 (3518)

38791873984189<$100

Invested

$10.38

Value

$10.28

PnL

-$0.1

Record

48%

61607-66479 (128086)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 51%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.