Nottingham Forest FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5

13 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Under (59%) · Under at 68¢ · $82K held · ended Nov 7

Over32¢Under68¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 59%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$82.5K

Combined PnL

$26.6K

Smart Money Entry

30.1¢ → 68¢

+126% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

13 of 22 top traders (59%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over32%

Under68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under13 traders

Total Value$59.3K

Total Shares81,322

Combined PnL+$27.1K

Over9 traders

Total Value$5.7K

Total Shares8,709

Combined PnL-$487.26

Under — 59%Over — 41%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 27.1¢	$17.3K	$28.8K	+$11.4K	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 59.2¢	$13.6K	$15.9K	+$2.4K	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
└ Under leg	Underavg 35.8¢	$6.3K	$12.0K	+$5.7K
└ Over leg	Overavg 59.2¢	$7.2K	$3.9K	$-3.3K
RN1	Underavg 34.2¢	$5.8K	$11.0K	+$5.3K	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
MA MadridTime	Underavg 32.5¢	$2.6K	$5.5K	+$2.8K	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Overavg 56¢	$2.1K	$3.6K	+$1.5K	51% 38648-37820 (76468)
LI Limousin	Underavg 24.8¢	$1.2K	$3.4K	+$2.1K	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
LI LightParadox	Underavg 30.7¢	$1.2K	$2.7K	+$1.5K	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 29.1¢	$1.1K	$2.6K	+$1.5K	46% 1795-2102 (3897)
VE Venusian	Underavg 38.6¢	$1.3K	$2.3K	+$1.0K	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
CI cigarettesCTR	Overavg 75.9¢	$2.6K	$1.1K	$-1.5K	50% 59994-58808 (118802)
LU LuckyLoo	Underavg 42.7¢	$651.84	$1.0K	+$386.98	49% 15008-15929 (30937)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 62.6¢	$1.8K	$1.0K	-$290.72	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
└ Under leg	Underavg 56.3¢	$448.18	$541.31	+$36.67
└ Over leg	Overavg 62.6¢	$909.84	$465.32	-$327.4
VeryLucky888	Underavg 63.2¢	$812.61	$842.52	+$45.03	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
SL SlickRick123	Underavg 10¢	$115.6	$786.08	+$670.48	48% 5549-6067 (11616)
alpheclabs2	Underavg 16.4¢	$94.08	$389.64	+$295.56	47% 1366-1547 (2913)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Overavg 63.8¢	$459.6	$378.02	-$81.58	55% 3814-3145 (6959)
└ Over leg	Overavg 63.8¢	$414.6	$208.02	-$206.58
└ Under leg	Underavg 18¢	$45	$170	+$125
GC GC-PCTR	Overavg 36¢	$360	$320	-$40	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
NM NM-PCTR	Overavg 36¢	$306	$272	-$34	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
MI MinevaJCTR	Overavg 76¢	$673.27	$258.56	-$371.39	56% 1161-902 (2063)
tradecraftARB<$100	Overavg 35.9¢	$142.98	$138.06	-$4.92	51% 6523-6284 (12807)
└ Over leg	Overavg 35.9¢	$81.56	$72.66	-$8.9
└ Under leg	Underavg 63.9¢	$61.42	$65.4	+$3.98
ZaiZoiBeleCTR	Overavg 64.2¢	$151.58	$75.52	-$76.06	79% 5360-1385 (6745)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Overavg 37¢	$51.8	$44.8	-$7	46% 8770-10464 (19234)
PA Pan9XCTR	Overavg 62.4¢	$268.76	$29.51	+$10.38	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Underavg 6.3¢	$1.76	$18.94	+$17.18	50% 21821-22062 (43883)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 63.3¢	$28.94	$16.97	+$1.53	58% 23579-16943 (40522)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$17,318.05

Value

$28.8K

PnL

+$11.4K

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$13,563.54

Value

$15.9K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

Both legs:

Under$6,330.6835.8¢+$5.7K

Over$7,232.8659.2¢$-3.3K

RN1

Under

Invested

$5,774.73

Value

$11.0K

PnL

+$5.3K

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

MadridTime

Under

Invested

$2,625.32

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$2.8K

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

SnakeBallCTR

Over

Invested

$2,055.8

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

51%

38648-37820 (76468)

Limousin

Under

Invested

$1,227.88

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$1,212.98

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$1,116.06

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

46%

1795-2102 (3897)

Venusian

Under

Invested

$1,313.79

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

cigarettesCTR

Over

Invested

$2,562.58

Value

$1.1K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

50%

59994-58808 (118802)

LuckyLoo

Under

Invested

$651.84

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$386.98

Record

49%

15008-15929 (30937)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,802.77

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$290.72

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Both legs:

Under$448.1856.3¢+$36.67

Over$909.8462.6¢-$327.4

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$812.61

Value

$842.52

PnL

+$45.03

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

SlickRick123

Under

Invested

$115.6

Value

$786.08

PnL

+$670.48

Record

48%

5549-6067 (11616)

alpheclabs2

Under

Invested

$94.08

Value

$389.64

PnL

+$295.56

Record

47%

1366-1547 (2913)

Anon455ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$459.6

Value

$378.02

PnL

-$81.58

Record

55%

3814-3145 (6959)

Both legs:

Over$414.663.8¢-$206.58

Under$4518¢+$125

GC-PCTR

Over

Invested

$360

Value

$320

PnL

-$40

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

NM-PCTR

Over

Invested

$306

Value

$272

PnL

-$34

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

MinevaJCTR

Over

Invested

$673.27

Value

$258.56

PnL

-$371.39

Record

56%

1161-902 (2063)

tradecraftARB<$100

Over

Invested

$142.98

Value

$138.06

PnL

-$4.92

Record

51%

6523-6284 (12807)

Both legs:

Over$81.5635.9¢-$8.9

Under$61.4263.9¢+$3.98

ZaiZoiBeleCTR

Over

Invested

$151.58

Value

$75.52

PnL

-$76.06

Record

79%

5360-1385 (6745)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$51.8

Value

$44.8

PnL

-$7

Record

46%

8770-10464 (19234)

Pan9XCTR

Over

Invested

$268.76

Value

$29.51

PnL

+$10.38

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Under

Invested

$1.76

Value

$18.94

PnL

+$17.18

Record

50%

21821-22062 (43883)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$28.94

Value

$16.97

PnL

+$1.53

Record

58%

23579-16943 (40522)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 68%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

13 of 22 top traders (59%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.1%

68.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$42.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

142.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.