Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (59%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Nottingham Forest FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 42¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 7

Over59¢Under41¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

-$6.78

Smart Money Entry

41.3¢ → 41.5¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 42%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over59%

Under42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares3,563

Combined PnL-$8.04

Over3 traders

Total Value$66.39

Total Shares112

Combined PnL+$1.26

Under — 67%Over — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Under 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 41¢	$460.79	$466.4	+$5.62	51% 27202-25761 (52963)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 59¢	$387.59	$387.59	+$3.87	48% 62393-67249 (129642)
└ Over leg	Overavg 59¢	$228.92	$226.98	-$1.94
└ Under leg	Underavg 41¢	$158.67	$160.61	+$5.81
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Underavg 42.2¢	$355.77	$349.79	-$5.98	42% 8168-11359 (19527)
NM NM-PCTR	Underavg 41¢	$317.75	$313.88	-$3.88	64% 10181-5719 (15900)
GC GC-PCTR	Underavg 41¢	$317.75	$313.87	-$3.87	64% 10178-5767 (15945)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Overavg 58¢	$52.74	$54.1	+$1.36	64% 2039-1134 (3173)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 41¢	$13.42	$13.42	-$0	58% 21687-15792 (37479)
SE sentrio<$100	Overavg 58¢	$8.55	$8.77	-$0.07	50% 26397-26018 (52415)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Underavg 41¢	$5.57	$5.57	+$0.07	51% 6512-6276 (12788)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 59¢	$3.54	$3.51	-$0.03	54% 10448-8768 (19216)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$460.79

Value

$466.4

PnL

+$5.62

Record

51%

27202-25761 (52963)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$387.59

Value

$387.59

PnL

+$3.87

Record

48%

62393-67249 (129642)

Both legs:

Over$228.9259¢-$1.94

Under$158.6741¢+$5.81

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Under

Invested

$355.77

Value

$349.79

PnL

-$5.98

Record

42%

8168-11359 (19527)

NM-PCTR

Under

Invested

$317.75

Value

$313.88

PnL

-$3.88

Record

64%

10181-5719 (15900)

GC-PCTR

Under

Invested

$317.75

Value

$313.87

PnL

-$3.87

Record

64%

10178-5767 (15945)

darkumbreon88<$100

Over

Invested

$52.74

Value

$54.1

PnL

+$1.36

Record

64%

2039-1134 (3173)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.42

Value

$13.42

PnL

-$0

Record

58%

21687-15792 (37479)

sentrio<$100

Over

Invested

$8.55

Value

$8.77

PnL

-$0.07

Record

50%

26397-26018 (52415)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.57

Value

$5.57

PnL

+$0.07

Record

51%

6512-6276 (12788)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$3.54

Value

$3.51

PnL

-$0.03

Record

54%

10448-8768 (19216)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 42%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Under 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.7%

41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$128.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

228.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.