Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Nottingham Forest FC, while the market favors Manchester City FC (98%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-2.5)

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Nottingham Forest FC (78%) · Nottingham Forest FC at 2.0¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 7

Nottingham Forest FC2¢Manchester City FC98¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Nottingham Forest FC

Consensus Traders

Nottingham Forest FC 78%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

-$5.3

Smart Money Entry

1.9¢ → 2¢

+5% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidNottingham Forest FC at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nottingham Forest FC

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Manchester City FC 98%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Nottingham Forest FC2%

Manchester City FC98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Manchester City FC2 traders

Total Value$581.75

Total Shares581

Combined PnL+$1.34

Nottingham Forest FC7 traders

Total Value$869.38

Total Shares46,062

Combined PnL-$6.64

Manchester City FC — 22%Nottingham Forest FC — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-25 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on Nottingham Forest FC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNottingham Forest FC 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNottingham Forest FC 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Nottingham Forest FC 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Manchester City FCavg 98.1¢	$875.48	$573.96	+$1.34	48% 62085-66960 (129045)
VE VenusianCTR	Nottingham Forest FCavg 1.9¢	$271.11	$283.95	+$12.84	49% 1774-1854 (3628)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Nottingham Forest FCavg 1.9¢	$230.73	$219.93	-$10.8	51% 26884-25495 (52379)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Nottingham Forest FCavg 2¢	$115.59	$108.01	-$7.58	49% 1740-1836 (3576)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Nottingham Forest FCavg 1.9¢	$105.47	$99.35	-$6.12	49% 14959-15843 (30802)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Nottingham Forest FCavg 1.9¢	$74.38	$77.64	+$3.26	50% 1794-1776 (3570)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Nottingham Forest FCavg 2¢	$46.94	$43.57	-$3.37	48% 1720-1837 (3557)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Nottingham Forest FCavg 1.8¢	$31.8	$36.93	+$5.13	50% 26296-25935 (52231)
GH ghorrock<$100	Manchester City FCavg 98¢	$7.79	$7.79	-$0	58% 21580-15650 (37230)

38791873984189

Manchester City FC

Invested

$875.48

Value

$573.96

PnL

+$1.34

Record

48%

62085-66960 (129045)

VenusianCTR

Nottingham Forest FC

Invested

$271.11

Value

$283.95

PnL

+$12.84

Record

49%

1774-1854 (3628)

FlaznorpCTR

Nottingham Forest FC

Invested

$230.73

Value

$219.93

PnL

-$10.8

Record

51%

26884-25495 (52379)

LightParadoxCTR

Nottingham Forest FC

Invested

$115.59

Value

$108.01

PnL

-$7.58

Record

49%

1740-1836 (3576)

LuckyLooCTR

Nottingham Forest FC

Invested

$105.47

Value

$99.35

PnL

-$6.12

Record

49%

14959-15843 (30802)

LimousinCTR<$100

Nottingham Forest FC

Invested

$74.38

Value

$77.64

PnL

+$3.26

Record

50%

1794-1776 (3570)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Nottingham Forest FC

Invested

$46.94

Value

$43.57

PnL

-$3.37

Record

48%

1720-1837 (3557)

sentrioCTR<$100

Nottingham Forest FC

Invested

$31.8

Value

$36.93

PnL

+$5.13

Record

50%

26296-25935 (52231)

ghorrock<$100

Manchester City FC

Invested

$7.79

Value

$7.79

PnL

-$0

Record

58%

21580-15650 (37230)

Research grade

AvoidNottingham Forest FC at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Nottingham Forest FC

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Manchester City FC 98%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-25 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on Nottingham Forest FC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNottingham Forest FC 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNottingham Forest FC 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Nottingham Forest FC 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nottingham Forest FC wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance3.1%

2.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3079.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

3179.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.