Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Nottingham Forest FC (73%) · Nottingham Forest FC at 69¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 7

Manchester City FC32¢Nottingham Forest FC68¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Nottingham Forest FC

Consensus Traders

Nottingham Forest FC 73%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$6.68

Smart Money Entry

67.8¢ → 68.5¢

+1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNottingham Forest FC at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nottingham Forest FC

8 of 11 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Manchester City FC32%

Nottingham Forest FC69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nottingham Forest FC8 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares4,125

Combined PnL+$10.83

Manchester City FC3 traders

Total Value$177.68

Total Shares561

Combined PnL-$4.15

Nottingham Forest FC — 73%Manchester City FC — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on Nottingham Forest FC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNottingham Forest FC 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrNottingham Forest FC 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNottingham Forest FC 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Nottingham Forest FC 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Nottingham Forest FCavg 67.5¢	$2.1K	$2.0K	+$15.47	58% 47334-34134 (81468)
38 38791873984189	Nottingham Forest FCavg 68¢	$399.16	$399.16	+$0	48% 62085-66960 (129045)
FL Flaznorp	Nottingham Forest FCavg 69¢	$253.96	$250.28	-$3.68	51% 26884-25495 (52379)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Manchester City FCavg 31¢	$147.13	$149.04	+$1.91	50% 28847-28660 (57507)
└ Manchester City FC leg	Manchester City FCavg 31¢	$94.09	$95.61	+$1.52
└ Nottingham Forest FC leg	Nottingham Forest FCavg 68¢	$53.04	$53.43	+$0.39
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Manchester City FCavg 33.1¢	$84.99	$83.48	-$1.51	48% 1720-1837 (3557)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Manchester City FCavg 32.1¢	$84.94	$82.11	-$2.83	49% 1740-1836 (3576)
DV dv-pm<$100	Nottingham Forest FCavg 69¢	$55.2	$54.8	-$0.4	48% 3363-3589 (6952)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Nottingham Forest FCavg 69¢	$26.91	$26.52	-$0.39	50% 38141-37389 (75530)
GH ghorrock<$100	Nottingham Forest FCavg 68¢	$18.35	$18.35	+$0	58% 21580-15650 (37230)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Manchester City FCavg 32.1¢	$12.51	$12.09	+$0.2	46% 8715-10380 (19095)
SE sentrio<$100	Nottingham Forest FCavg 69¢	$9.56	$9.42	-$0.07	50% 26296-25935 (52231)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Nottingham Forest FCavg 69¢	$6.9	$6.8	-$0.1	52% 8906-8084 (16990)

VeryLucky888

Nottingham Forest FC

Invested

$2,056.86

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$15.47

Record

58%

47334-34134 (81468)

38791873984189

Nottingham Forest FC

Invested

$399.16

Value

$399.16

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

62085-66960 (129045)

Flaznorp

Nottingham Forest FC

Invested

$253.96

Value

$250.28

PnL

-$3.68

Record

51%

26884-25495 (52379)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Manchester City FC

Invested

$147.13

Value

$149.04

PnL

+$1.91

Record

50%

28847-28660 (57507)

Both legs:

Manchester City FC$94.0931¢+$1.52

Nottingham Forest FC$53.0468¢+$0.39

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Manchester City FC

Invested

$84.99

Value

$83.48

PnL

-$1.51

Record

48%

1720-1837 (3557)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Manchester City FC

Invested

$84.94

Value

$82.11

PnL

-$2.83

Record

49%

1740-1836 (3576)

dv-pm<$100

Nottingham Forest FC

Invested

$55.2

Value

$54.8

PnL

-$0.4

Record

48%

3363-3589 (6952)

SnakeBall<$100

Nottingham Forest FC

Invested

$26.91

Value

$26.52

PnL

-$0.39

Record

50%

38141-37389 (75530)

ghorrock<$100

Nottingham Forest FC

Invested

$18.35

Value

$18.35

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

21580-15650 (37230)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Manchester City FC

Invested

$12.51

Value

$12.09

PnL

+$0.2

Record

46%

8715-10380 (19095)

sentrio<$100

Nottingham Forest FC

Invested

$9.56

Value

$9.42

PnL

-$0.07

Record

50%

26296-25935 (52231)

ameisgoat11<$100

Nottingham Forest FC

Invested

$6.9

Value

$6.8

PnL

-$0.1

Record

52%

8906-8084 (16990)

Research grade

NeutralNottingham Forest FC at 69%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Nottingham Forest FC

8 of 11 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on Nottingham Forest FC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNottingham Forest FC 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrNottingham Forest FC 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNottingham Forest FC 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Nottingham Forest FC 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nottingham Forest FC wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.