Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-11-07?

4 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 80¢ · $16K held · ends Nov 7

Yes21¢No79¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 33%

Total Value

$15.6K

Combined PnL

-$123.67

Smart Money Entry

80.3¢ → 79.5¢

-1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 12 top traders (33%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes21%

No80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$10.1K

Total Shares12,678

Combined PnL-$40.71

Yes8 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares27,628

Combined PnL-$82.96

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

32h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 5

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 73% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA darkumbreon88	Noavg 80¢	$5.3K	$5.3K	-$66.47	64% 2015-1119 (3134)
Taroooooo	Noavg 80.8¢	$4.5K	$4.4K	+$27.93	62% 151-91 (242)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Yesavg 20.8¢	$2.7K	$2.6K	-$103.26	50% 1614-1641 (3255)
DV dv-pmCTR	Yesavg 20¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$43.87	48% 3353-3570 (6923)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 20.5¢	$488.64	$476	-$11.9	50% 28646-28478 (57124)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 79.8¢	$359.7	$359.36	-$2.41	48% 61956-66813 (128769)
CA CannaeCTR	Yesavg 20¢	$353.58	$353.58	-$8.84	53% 16942-15068 (32010)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 20¢	$233.6	$233.6	-$5.84	51% 26515-25136 (51651)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$70.55	$72.31	+$1.76	64% 10073-5631 (15704)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$56.93	$61.99	+$1.33	64% 10095-5700 (15795)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Noavg 80.8¢	$37.92	$37.07	+$0.23	48% 7427-7962 (15389)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 20.8¢	$2.2	$2.12	-$0.08	50% 21413-21676 (43089)

darkumbreon88

Invested

$5,317.83

Value

$5.3K

PnL

-$66.47

Record

64%

2015-1119 (3134)

Taroooooo

Invested

$4,512.61

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$27.93

Record

62%

151-91 (242)

LightParadoxCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,684.8

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$103.26

Record

50%

1614-1641 (3255)

dv-pmCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,754.85

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$43.87

Record

48%

3353-3570 (6923)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$488.64

Value

$476

PnL

-$11.9

Record

50%

28646-28478 (57124)

38791873984189

Invested

$359.7

Value

$359.36

PnL

-$2.41

Record

48%

61956-66813 (128769)

CannaeCTR

Yes

Invested

$353.58

Value

$353.58

PnL

-$8.84

Record

53%

16942-15068 (32010)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$233.6

Value

$233.6

PnL

-$5.84

Record

51%

26515-25136 (51651)

NM-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$70.55

Value

$72.31

PnL

+$1.76

Record

64%

10073-5631 (15704)

GC-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$56.93

Value

$61.99

PnL

+$1.33

Record

64%

10095-5700 (15795)

Oddstorm<$100

Invested

$37.92

Value

$37.07

PnL

+$0.23

Record

48%

7427-7962 (15389)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.12

PnL

-$0.08

Record

50%

21413-21676 (43089)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 80%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 12 top traders (33%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

32h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 5

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 73% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.