Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (56%). 6 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-11-07?

6 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 45¢ · $32K held · ends Nov 7

Yes56¢No44¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 40%

Total Value

$31.9K

Combined PnL

$672.17

Smart Money Entry

43.2¢ → 44.5¢

+3% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 45%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 15 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 56%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes56%

No45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$27.2K

Total Shares61,169

Combined PnL+$775.82

Yes9 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares8,380

Combined PnL-$103.65

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Late

97h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (13 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 62% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SI Siddhartha1CTR	Noavg 43¢	$16.5K	$17.1K	+$575.08	49% 64-67 (131)
DV dv-pmCTR	Noavg 44¢	$5.6K	$5.6K	+$63.23	48% 3353-3569 (6922)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 43¢	$3.1K	$3.0K	+$99.64	58% 47093-33971 (81064)
DA darkumbreon88	Yesavg 56¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	-$42.32	64% 2014-1119 (3133)
GA Gaditima	Yesavg 58.2¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$10	48% 7444-8160 (15604)
NM NM-PCTR	Noavg 43.6¢	$686.41	$699.84	+$13.42	64% 10071-5631 (15702)
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 56¢	$503	$494.02	-$8.98	50% 28625-28459 (57084)
GC GC-PCTR	Noavg 44¢	$449.49	$454.82	+$5.33	64% 10094-5700 (15794)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 43¢	$69.62	$367.54	+$19.12	51% 26334-24960 (51294)
PU purplegatto	Yesavg 58.2¢	$324.32	$306.35	-$17.97	49% 6358-6517 (12875)
IC ic4cream	Yesavg 58.2¢	$287.63	$271.7	-$2.47	56% 2780-2195 (4975)
38 38791873984189	Yesavg 57¢	$280.51	$139.36	-$19.65	48% 61947-66807 (128754)
0X 0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7<$100	Yesavg 58.2¢	$25.51	$24.09	-$1.41	33% 1183-2359 (3542)
BI big8betz<$100	Yesavg 58.2¢	$11.24	$10.61	-$0.29	48% 44-48 (92)
WA waierma<$100	Yesavg 58.2¢	$10.22	$9.65	-$0.57	45% 94-116 (210)

Siddhartha1CTR

Invested

$16,485.75

Value

$17.1K

PnL

+$575.08

Record

49%

64-67 (131)

dv-pmCTR

Invested

$5,562.8

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$63.23

Record

48%

3353-3569 (6922)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$3,069.31

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$99.64

Record

58%

47093-33971 (81064)

darkumbreon88

Yes

Invested

$2,318.36

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$42.32

Record

64%

2014-1119 (3133)

Gaditima

Yes

Invested

$1,164.51

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$10

Record

48%

7444-8160 (15604)

NM-PCTR

Invested

$686.41

Value

$699.84

PnL

+$13.42

Record

64%

10071-5631 (15702)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$503

Value

$494.02

PnL

-$8.98

Record

50%

28625-28459 (57084)

GC-PCTR

Invested

$449.49

Value

$454.82

PnL

+$5.33

Record

64%

10094-5700 (15794)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$69.62

Value

$367.54

PnL

+$19.12

Record

51%

26334-24960 (51294)

purplegatto

Yes

Invested

$324.32

Value

$306.35

PnL

-$17.97

Record

49%

6358-6517 (12875)

ic4cream

Yes

Invested

$287.63

Value

$271.7

PnL

-$2.47

Record

56%

2780-2195 (4975)

38791873984189

Yes

Invested

$280.51

Value

$139.36

PnL

-$19.65

Record

48%

61947-66807 (128754)

0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.51

Value

$24.09

PnL

-$1.41

Record

33%

1183-2359 (3542)

big8betz<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.24

Value

$10.61

PnL

-$0.29

Record

48%

44-48 (92)

waierma<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.22

Value

$9.65

PnL

-$0.57

Record

45%

94-116 (210)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 45%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 15 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 56%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Late

97h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (13 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 62% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.7%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$113.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

214.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.