Exact Score: Nottingham Forest FC 4 - 1 Manchester City FC?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 99¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 57%
$9.4K
$10.1
91.1¢ → 98.8¢
+8% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 90.9¢ | $8.3K | $9.0K | +$721.1 | 51% 38648-37820 (76468) |
MA MadridTime | Noavg 96.4¢ | $191.56 | $194.6 | +$3.04 | 48% 1776-1912 (3688) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Yesavg 10.1¢ | $828.73 | $116.93 | -$711.8 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $74.93 | $74 | -$0.93 | 49% 1800-1902 (3702) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 95.9¢ | $19.18 | $19.76 | +$0.58 | 50% 1850-1866 (3716) |
LO lovedudleyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $13.89 | $12 | -$1.89 | 28% 1154-3035 (4189) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.2¢ | $1.14 | $1.15 | +$0.01 | 50% 59994-58808 (118802) |
Invested
$8,282.73
Value
$9.0K
PnL
+$721.1
Record
51%
38648-37820 (76468)
Invested
$191.56
Value
$194.6
PnL
+$3.04
Record
48%
1776-1912 (3688)
Invested
$828.73
Value
$116.93
PnL
-$711.8
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
Invested
$74.93
Value
$74
PnL
-$0.93
Record
49%
1800-1902 (3702)
Invested
$19.18
Value
$19.76
PnL
+$0.58
Record
50%
1850-1866 (3716)
Invested
$13.89
Value
$12
PnL
-$1.89
Record
28%
1154-3035 (4189)
Invested
$1.14
Value
$1.15
PnL
+$0.01
Record
50%
59994-58808 (118802)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.