Exact Score: Nottingham Forest FC 3 - 3 Manchester City FC?
7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 95¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 70%
$1.7K
$2.62
95.6¢ → 95¢
-1% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI Limousin | Noavg 95.7¢ | $502.34 | $498.54 | -$3.8 | 50% 1850-1866 (3716) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 93.4¢ | $414.54 | $420.62 | +$6.08 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
 RN1 | Noavg 96.7¢ | $282.62 | $299.39 | +$16.77 | 53% 63014-55227 (118241) |
MA MadridTime | Noavg 95.8¢ | $165.89 | $170.77 | +$4.88 | 48% 1776-1912 (3688) |
LI LightParadox | Noavg 96.7¢ | $140.23 | $137.73 | -$2.5 | 49% 1800-1902 (3702) |
VE Venusian | Noavg 99.5¢ | $107.88 | $104.31 | -$3.56 | 49% 1844-1936 (3780) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.4¢ | $32.35 | $30.21 | -$2.14 | 49% 15008-15929 (30937) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 98.8¢ | $19.75 | $19 | -$0.75 | 50% 59994-58808 (118802) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.3¢ | $0.26 | $1 | +$0.74 | 51% 38648-37820 (76468) |
LO lovedudleyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 86.8¢ | $13.89 | $0.8 | -$13.09 | 28% 1154-3035 (4189) |
Invested
$502.34
Value
$498.54
PnL
-$3.8
Record
50%
1850-1866 (3716)
Invested
$414.54
Value
$420.62
PnL
+$6.08
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
RN1Invested
$282.62
Value
$299.39
PnL
+$16.77
Record
53%
63014-55227 (118241)
Invested
$165.89
Value
$170.77
PnL
+$4.88
Record
48%
1776-1912 (3688)
Invested
$140.23
Value
$137.73
PnL
-$2.5
Record
49%
1800-1902 (3702)
Invested
$107.88
Value
$104.31
PnL
-$3.56
Record
49%
1844-1936 (3780)
Invested
$32.35
Value
$30.21
PnL
-$2.14
Record
49%
15008-15929 (30937)
Invested
$19.75
Value
$19
PnL
-$0.75
Record
50%
59994-58808 (118802)
Invested
$0.26
Value
$1
PnL
+$0.74
Record
51%
38648-37820 (76468)
Invested
$13.89
Value
$0.8
PnL
-$13.09
Record
28%
1154-3035 (4189)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.