Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (63%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Exact Score: Nottingham Forest FC 3 - 1 Manchester City FC?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 37¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 7

Yes37¢No63¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

-$689.97

Smart Money Entry

57.5¢ → 37¢

-36% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 37%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes37%

No63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$785.93

Total Shares1,233

Combined PnL-$29.69

Yes6 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares3,220

Combined PnL-$660.28

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 42.4¢	$409.38	$814.08	+$404.7	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 12.4¢	$136.47	$408.23	+$271.75
└ No leg	Noavg 42.4¢	$272.91	$405.86	+$132.95
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 66.7¢	$649.73	$613.46	-$36.27	49% 15008-15929 (30937)
LO looppauCTR	Yesavg 99.9¢	$1.1K	$417.26	-$709.34	99% 13202-108 (13310)
LO lovedudleyCTR	Yesavg 1.4¢	$13.89	$370	+$356.11	28% 1154-3035 (4189)
LI LimousinCTR	Yesavg 64.3¢	$282.48	$162.56	-$119.92	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Yesavg 61.6¢	$244.62	$147.04	-$97.58	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 47.7¢	$98.3	$129.94	+$31.64	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
VE VenusianCTR	Yesavg 78.1¢	$190.6	$93.99	-$96.62	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 90.2¢	$47.91	$29.93	-$17.98	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$19.68	$12.6	-$7.08	50% 59994-58808 (118802)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$0.34	$7.4	+$7.06	51% 38648-37820 (76468)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$409.38

Value

$814.08

PnL

+$404.7

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

Both legs:

Yes$136.4712.4¢+$271.75

No$272.9142.4¢+$132.95

LuckyLoo

Invested

$649.73

Value

$613.46

PnL

-$36.27

Record

49%

15008-15929 (30937)

looppauCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,126.59

Value

$417.26

PnL

-$709.34

Record

99%

13202-108 (13310)

lovedudleyCTR

Yes

Invested

$13.89

Value

$370

PnL

+$356.11

Record

28%

1154-3035 (4189)

LimousinCTR

Yes

Invested

$282.48

Value

$162.56

PnL

-$119.92

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

MadridTimeCTR

Yes

Invested

$244.62

Value

$147.04

PnL

-$97.58

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

38791873984189

Invested

$98.3

Value

$129.94

PnL

+$31.64

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

VenusianCTR

Yes

Invested

$190.6

Value

$93.99

PnL

-$96.62

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$47.91

Value

$29.93

PnL

-$17.98

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.68

Value

$12.6

PnL

-$7.08

Record

50%

59994-58808 (118802)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.34

Value

$7.4

PnL

+$7.06

Record

51%

38648-37820 (76468)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 37%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance39.2%

37.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$155.25

Max Loss

-$100.00

255.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.