Exact Score: Nottingham Forest FC 1 - 2 Manchester City FC?
10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 63¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
12
No 83%
$3.2K
-$192.56
87.9¢ → 63¢
-28% since entry · 10 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 63%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA MadridTime | Noavg 87¢ | $1.2K | $905.11 | -$344.8 | 48% 1776-1912 (3688) |
 RN1CTR | Yesavg 13¢ | $197.1 | $546.78 | +$349.68 | 53% 63014-55227 (118241) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 89¢ | $727.22 | $514.77 | -$212.45 | 64% 10184-5783 (15967) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 89¢ | $659.56 | $466.88 | -$192.68 | 64% 10183-5729 (15912) |
LO lovedudleyCTR | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $13.89 | $370 | +$356.11 | 28% 1145-2969 (4114) |
 alpheclabs2 | Noavg 86¢ | $300.82 | $220.37 | -$80.45 | 47% 1366-1547 (2913) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 89¢ | $133.5 | $78.41 | -$32.1 | 58% 47904-34520 (82424) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Noavg 87.5¢ | $76 | $54.7 | -$21.3 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $32.63 | $23.1 | -$9.53 | 58% 23579-16943 (40522) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $12.72 | $9.21 | -$3.51 | 51% 38648-37820 (76468) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $3.13 | $3.15 | +$0.03 | 50% 26409-26025 (52434) |
SH shiifoo<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $4.69 | $3.14 | -$1.55 | 47% 4175-4797 (8972) |
Invested
$1,249.91
Value
$905.11
PnL
-$344.8
Record
48%
1776-1912 (3688)
RN1CTRInvested
$197.1
Value
$546.78
PnL
+$349.68
Record
53%
63014-55227 (118241)
Invested
$727.22
Value
$514.77
PnL
-$212.45
Record
64%
10184-5783 (15967)
Invested
$659.56
Value
$466.88
PnL
-$192.68
Record
64%
10183-5729 (15912)
Invested
$13.89
Value
$370
PnL
+$356.11
Record
28%
1145-2969 (4114)
alpheclabs2Invested
$300.82
Value
$220.37
PnL
-$80.45
Record
47%
1366-1547 (2913)
VeryLucky888Invested
$133.5
Value
$78.41
PnL
-$32.1
Record
58%
47904-34520 (82424)
Invested
$76
Value
$54.7
PnL
-$21.3
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
Invested
$32.63
Value
$23.1
PnL
-$9.53
Record
58%
23579-16943 (40522)
Invested
$12.72
Value
$9.21
PnL
-$3.51
Record
51%
38648-37820 (76468)
Invested
$3.13
Value
$3.15
PnL
+$0.03
Record
50%
26409-26025 (52434)
Invested
$4.69
Value
$3.14
PnL
-$1.55
Record
47%
4175-4797 (8972)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.