Exact Score: Nottingham Forest FC 0 - 0 Manchester City FC?
5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 95¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 50%
1 arb excluded
$1.2K
$2.65
94.8¢ → 95.2¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+6 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBallARB<$100 | Noavg 94.7¢ | $683.79 | $689.74 | +$5.95 | 50% 38141-37389 (75530) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 94.7¢ | $498.53 | $501.69 | +$3.16 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 4.6¢ | $185.26 | $188.05 | +$2.79 | |
NM NM-P | Noavg 94.6¢ | $202.38 | $192.15 | -$0.18 | 64% 10131-5689 (15820) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 94.6¢ | $189.91 | $190.61 | +$0.69 | 64% 10152-5754 (15906) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $62.78 | $65.56 | +$2.79 | 51% 26884-25495 (52379) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 95.7¢ | $37.37 | $37.21 | -$0.16 | 50% 1794-1776 (3570) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.8¢ | $30.35 | $29.86 | -$0.49 | 49% 14959-15843 (30802) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $18.32 | $18.39 | +$0.07 | 58% 21580-15650 (37230) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 95.1¢ | $9.51 | $9.53 | +$0.02 | 48% 1720-1837 (3557) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $4.95 | $5.17 | +$0.06 | 50% 26296-25935 (52231) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.9¢ | $1.82 | $1.76 | -$0.06 | 49% 1774-1854 (3628) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.9¢ | $1.61 | $1.54 | -$0.07 | 49% 1740-1836 (3576) |
Invested
$683.79
Value
$689.74
PnL
+$5.95
Record
50%
38141-37389 (75530)
Both legs:
Invested
$202.38
Value
$192.15
PnL
-$0.18
Record
64%
10131-5689 (15820)
Invested
$189.91
Value
$190.61
PnL
+$0.69
Record
64%
10152-5754 (15906)
Invested
$62.78
Value
$65.56
PnL
+$2.79
Record
51%
26884-25495 (52379)
Invested
$37.37
Value
$37.21
PnL
-$0.16
Record
50%
1794-1776 (3570)
Invested
$30.35
Value
$29.86
PnL
-$0.49
Record
49%
14959-15843 (30802)
Invested
$18.32
Value
$18.39
PnL
+$0.07
Record
58%
21580-15650 (37230)
Invested
$9.51
Value
$9.53
PnL
+$0.02
Record
48%
1720-1837 (3557)
Invested
$4.95
Value
$5.17
PnL
+$0.06
Record
50%
26296-25935 (52231)
Invested
$1.82
Value
$1.76
PnL
-$0.06
Record
49%
1774-1854 (3628)
Invested
$1.61
Value
$1.54
PnL
-$0.07
Record
49%
1740-1836 (3576)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.