Newcastle United FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 4.5
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (20%) · Under at 84¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 20%
$5.9K
-$33.43
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+16 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x127e88ca7f26b32be5ff2b005c5478cbd3833dd8 | Underavg 84¢ | $5.0K | $5.0K | -$60 | 67% 225-113 (338) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Overavg 16¢ | $474.43 | $474.43 | +$14.83 | 49% 13477-14173 (27650) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Overavg 16¢ | $308.17 | $317.8 | +$9.63 | 51% 17602-16613 (34215) |
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100 | Overavg 16¢ | $78.88 | $78.88 | +$0 | 46% 9226-10934 (20160) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Overavg 16¢ | $71 | $73.11 | +$2.11 | 47% 12949-14528 (27477) |
Invested
$5,040
Value
$5.0K
PnL
-$60
Record
67%
225-113 (338)
Invested
$474.43
Value
$474.43
PnL
+$14.83
Record
49%
13477-14173 (27650)
Invested
$308.17
Value
$317.8
PnL
+$9.63
Record
51%
17602-16613 (34215)
Invested
$78.88
Value
$78.88
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
9226-10934 (20160)
Invested
$71
Value
$73.11
PnL
+$2.11
Record
47%
12949-14528 (27477)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.