Will Everton FC win on 2026-11-02?

7 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 71¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 2

Yes30¢No70¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$11.2K

Combined PnL

$176.31

Smart Money Entry

69.5¢ → 70.5¢

+1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes30%

No71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares12,238

Combined PnL+$69.21

No7 traders

Total Value$7.5K

Total Shares10,650

Combined PnL+$107.1

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

46% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (12 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 56% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 58% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ND ndb1CTR	Yesavg 29¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$48.1	66% 882-453 (1335)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Noavg 70¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$15	53% 5746-5083 (10829)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 69.3¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$34.35	51% 17602-16613 (34215)
DO DolphinBaller	Noavg 69¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$21.76	47% 107-123 (230)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 69.1¢	$2.0K	$931.57	+$22.12	58% 43586-31701 (75287)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 69.9¢	$903.5	$910.86	+$7.36	58% 48497-34661 (83158)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Yesavg 29.3¢	$477.07	$497.9	+$20.83	72% 6934-2737 (9671)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Noavg 70¢	$298.2	$302.46	+$4.26	46% 9226-10934 (20160)
CA Cannae	Noavg 70¢	$157.53	$159.78	+$2.25	53% 16253-14437 (30690)
coockroach1CTR	Yesavg 31.3¢	$127.42	$120.01	-$7.41	48% 34-37 (71)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$94.86	$90.27	-$4.59	48% 7156-7605 (14761)
38 38791873984189CTR	Yesavg 29¢	$308.27	$82.69	+$12.32	47% 12954-14535 (27489)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$5	$1.48	-$0.03	52% 7634-6911 (14545)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$1.04	$1.02	-$0.02	44% 6428-8029 (14457)

ndb1CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,790.02

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$48.1

Record

66%

882-453 (1335)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Invested

$2,100

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$15

Record

53%

5746-5083 (10829)

Flaznorp

Invested

$2,034.62

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$34.35

Record

51%

17602-16613 (34215)

DolphinBaller

Invested

$1,000.82

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$21.76

Record

47%

107-123 (230)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$1,984.73

Value

$931.57

PnL

+$22.12

Record

58%

43586-31701 (75287)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$903.5

Value

$910.86

PnL

+$7.36

Record

58%

48497-34661 (83158)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Yes

Invested

$477.07

Value

$497.9

PnL

+$20.83

Record

72%

6934-2737 (9671)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Invested

$298.2

Value

$302.46

PnL

+$4.26

Record

46%

9226-10934 (20160)

Cannae

Invested

$157.53

Value

$159.78

PnL

+$2.25

Record

53%

16253-14437 (30690)

coockroach1CTR

Yes

Invested

$127.42

Value

$120.01

PnL

-$7.41

Record

48%

34-37 (71)

OddstormCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$94.86

Value

$90.27

PnL

-$4.59

Record

48%

7156-7605 (14761)

38791873984189CTR

Yes

Invested

$308.27

Value

$82.69

PnL

+$12.32

Record

47%

12954-14535 (27489)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$1.48

PnL

-$0.03

Record

52%

7634-6911 (14545)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.04

Value

$1.02

PnL

-$0.02

Record

44%

6428-8029 (14457)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

46% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (12 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 56% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 58% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.