Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (61%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Newcastle United FC vs. Everton FC: Both Teams to Score
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 40¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
1 arb excluded
$3.6K
$3.25
39¢ → 39.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 40%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 61%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-10 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 39¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$13.94 | 51% 17621-16621 (34242) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR | Noavg 39¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$0 | 72% 6936-2743 (9679) |
 nigiri99 | Yesavg 61¢ | $293.41 | $1.1K | -$8.69 | 46% 7288-8597 (15885) |
SU suntori | Yesavg 61¢ | $249.32 | $247.28 | -$2.04 | 45% 12937-15707 (28644) |
CA CannaeARB<$100 | Yesavg 60¢ | $74.38 | $75.11 | +$0.73 | 53% 16265-14441 (30706) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 60¢ | $49.23 | $49.64 | +$0.41 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 39¢ | $25.14 | $25.47 | +$0.32 | |
SE sentrio<$100 | Yesavg 60¢ | $5.41 | $5.46 | +$0.05 | 50% 25009-24731 (49740) |
Invested
$1,087.26
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$13.94
Record
51%
17621-16621 (34242)
Invested
$1,072.68
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$0
Record
72%
6936-2743 (9679)
nigiri99Invested
$293.41
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$8.69
Record
46%
7288-8597 (15885)
Invested
$249.32
Value
$247.28
PnL
-$2.04
Record
45%
12937-15707 (28644)
Invested
$74.38
Value
$75.11
PnL
+$0.73
Record
53%
16265-14441 (30706)
Both legs:
Invested
$5.41
Value
$5.46
PnL
+$0.05
Record
50%
25009-24731 (49740)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
39.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.