Spread: Aston Villa FC (-2.5)

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Manchester United FC (50%) · Manchester United FC at 80¢ · $16K held · ended Nov 8

Aston Villa FC20¢Manchester United FC80¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Manchester United FC

Consensus Traders

Manchester United FC 50%

Total Value

$16.2K

Combined PnL

-$958.76

Smart Money Entry

91.6¢ → 79.7¢

-13% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralManchester United FC at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Manchester United FC

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Aston Villa FC20%

Manchester United FC80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Manchester United FC5 traders

Total Value$15.8K

Total Shares18,150

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Aston Villa FC5 traders

Total Value$420.24

Total Shares3,070

Combined PnL+$173.56

Manchester United FC — 50%Aston Villa FC — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Manchester United FC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleManchester United FC 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrManchester United FC 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Manchester United FC 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Manchester United FCavg 91¢	$11.2K	$10.1K	$-1.2K	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
GO GoalLineGhost	Manchester United FCavg 94.8¢	$4.7K	$4.3K	-$4.77	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
38 38791873984189	Manchester United FCavg 83.5¢	$1.4K	$932.14	+$71.76	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Manchester United FCavg 95.4¢	$400	$357.8	-$23.8	51% 2075-2021 (4096)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Aston Villa FCavg 8.8¢	$73.47	$155.83	+$82.36	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
DV dv-pmCTR	Aston Villa FCavg 5¢	$61.13	$131.43	+$70.3	48% 3580-3942 (7522)
PA Pan9X	Manchester United FCavg 85.2¢	$146.63	$94.99	+$4.64	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Aston Villa FCavg 16.7¢	$84.53	$92.62	+$8.09	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Aston Villa FCavg 5.4¢	$490.74	$39.26	+$12.76	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Aston Villa FCavg 5¢	$1.05	$1.1	+$0.05	50% 48537-48152 (96689)

Flaznorp

Manchester United FC

Invested

$11,237.34

Value

$10.1K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

GoalLineGhost

Manchester United FC

Invested

$4,683.03

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$4.77

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

38791873984189

Manchester United FC

Invested

$1,360.35

Value

$932.14

PnL

+$71.76

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Manchester United FC

Invested

$400

Value

$357.8

PnL

-$23.8

Record

51%

2075-2021 (4096)

LightParadoxCTR

Aston Villa FC

Invested

$73.47

Value

$155.83

PnL

+$82.36

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

dv-pmCTR

Aston Villa FC

Invested

$61.13

Value

$131.43

PnL

+$70.3

Record

48%

3580-3942 (7522)

Pan9X

Manchester United FC

Invested

$146.63

Value

$94.99

PnL

+$4.64

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

VenusianCTR<$100

Aston Villa FC

Invested

$84.53

Value

$92.62

PnL

+$8.09

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

MadridTimeCTR

Aston Villa FC

Invested

$490.74

Value

$39.26

PnL

+$12.76

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Aston Villa FC

Invested

$1.05

Value

$1.1

PnL

+$0.05

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

Research grade

NeutralManchester United FC at 80%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Manchester United FC

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Manchester United FC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleManchester United FC 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrManchester United FC 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Manchester United FC 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Manchester United FC wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.4%

79.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$22.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

122.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.