Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Manchester United FC, while the market favors Aston Villa FC (67%). 5 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)
5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Manchester United FC (50%) · Manchester United FC at 33¢ · $16K held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Manchester United FC
10
Manchester United FC 50%
8 arb excluded
$15.8K
-$264.76
46.8¢ → 33¢
-29% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralManchester United FC at 33%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Aston Villa FC 67%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Manchester United FC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Manchester United FCavg 62.5¢ | $11.7K | $7.3K | $-4.4K | 51% 46870-44196 (91066) |
| └ Manchester United FC leg | Manchester United FCavg 62.5¢ | $10.6K | $5.6K | $-5.0K | |
| └ Aston Villa FC leg | Aston Villa FCavg 42.2¢ | $1.0K | $1.7K | +$615.33 | |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Manchester United FCavg 86.6¢ | $4.3K | $2.9K | $-1.4K | 50% 32540-32687 (65227) |
| └ Aston Villa FC leg | Aston Villa FCavg 30.9¢ | $707.09 | $1.5K | +$792.2 | |
| └ Manchester United FC leg | Manchester United FCavg 86.6¢ | $3.6K | $1.4K | $-2.2K | |
 RN1CTR | Manchester United FCavg 45¢ | $1.3K | $1.0K | -$297.71 | 53% 70164-61737 (131901) |
KA Kaczka | Aston Villa FCavg 52.2¢ | $988.87 | $903.33 | -$63.68 | 50% 518-513 (1031) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Manchester United FCavg 56.4¢ | $911.33 | $801.79 | -$5.38 | 48% 70219-75923 (146142) |
| └ Manchester United FC leg | Manchester United FCavg 56.4¢ | $680.63 | $416.48 | -$267.42 | |
| └ Aston Villa FC leg | Aston Villa FCavg 24.8¢ | $145.67 | $385.31 | +$262.04 | |
AN Anon455ARB<$100 | Manchester United FCavg 50.2¢ | $791.09 | $734.18 | -$56.91 | 55% 3933-3280 (7213) |
| └ Aston Villa FC leg | Aston Villa FCavg 50.2¢ | $316.82 | $422.55 | +$105.73 | |
| └ Manchester United FC leg | Manchester United FCavg 50.2¢ | $474.26 | $311.63 | -$162.64 | |
SN SnakeBallARB<$100 | Manchester United FCavg 47.4¢ | $541.82 | $534.2 | -$7.62 | 50% 48537-48152 (96689) |
| └ Aston Villa FC leg | Aston Villa FCavg 41¢ | $167.32 | $273.44 | +$106.12 | |
| └ Manchester United FC leg | Manchester United FCavg 47.4¢ | $374.51 | $260.77 | -$113.74 | |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Manchester United FCavg 47¢ | $590.62 | $433.54 | -$157.08 | 46% 30563-35669 (66232) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Aston Villa FCavg 28.1¢ | $126.92 | $300.53 | +$173.61 | 50% 23433-23429 (46862) |
LI Limousin | Aston Villa FCavg 49.6¢ | $204.05 | $251.92 | +$47.87 | 49% 2102-2190 (4292) |
LI LightParadoxARB<$100 | Aston Villa FCavg 47.3¢ | $181.67 | $196.06 | +$14.4 | 48% 2039-2213 (4252) |
| └ Aston Villa FC leg | Aston Villa FCavg 47.3¢ | $91.67 | $127.06 | +$35.4 | |
| └ Manchester United FC leg | Manchester United FCavg 45¢ | $90 | $69 | -$21 | |
VE VenusianARB<$100 | Manchester United FCavg 45.8¢ | $180.87 | $180.18 | -$0.69 | 48% 2079-2257 (4336) |
| └ Aston Villa FC leg | Aston Villa FCavg 46.2¢ | $66.02 | $93.66 | +$27.64 | |
| └ Manchester United FC leg | Manchester United FCavg 45.8¢ | $114.85 | $86.51 | -$28.34 | |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Manchester United FCavg 86.7¢ | $80.19 | $80.23 | +$0.04 | 51% 27916-27361 (55277) |
PA Pan9XCTR | Manchester United FCavg 53¢ | $128.98 | $68.25 | +$7.71 | 52% 27099-24604 (51703) |
MA MadridTimeARB<$100 | Manchester United FCavg 49¢ | $63.34 | $64.45 | +$1.11 | 48% 2032-2230 (4262) |
| └ Aston Villa FC leg | Aston Villa FCavg 41.1¢ | $22.33 | $35.58 | +$13.25 | |
| └ Manchester United FC leg | Manchester United FCavg 49¢ | $41.01 | $28.87 | -$12.14 | |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | Manchester United FCavg 40¢ | $26.58 | $26.01 | -$0.57 | 46% 1957-2309 (4266) |
 dips.<$100 | Aston Villa FCavg 3¢ | $1.02 | $18.02 | +$17 | 46% 12026-13917 (25943) |
 nigiri99<$100 | Aston Villa FCavg 13¢ | $9.1 | $17.15 | +$8.05 | 45% 14412-17706 (32118) |
Invested
$11,658.35
Value
$7.3K
PnL
$-4.4K
Record
51%
46870-44196 (91066)
Both legs:
Invested
$4,294.32
Value
$2.9K
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
50%
32540-32687 (65227)
Both legs:
RN1CTRInvested
$1,299.31
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$297.71
Record
53%
70164-61737 (131901)
Invested
$988.87
Value
$903.33
PnL
-$63.68
Record
50%
518-513 (1031)
Invested
$911.33
Value
$801.79
PnL
-$5.38
Record
48%
70219-75923 (146142)
Both legs:
Invested
$791.09
Value
$734.18
PnL
-$56.91
Record
55%
3933-3280 (7213)
Both legs:
Invested
$541.82
Value
$534.2
PnL
-$7.62
Record
50%
48537-48152 (96689)
Both legs:
Invested
$590.62
Value
$433.54
PnL
-$157.08
Record
46%
30563-35669 (66232)
Invested
$126.92
Value
$300.53
PnL
+$173.61
Record
50%
23433-23429 (46862)
Invested
$204.05
Value
$251.92
PnL
+$47.87
Record
49%
2102-2190 (4292)
Invested
$181.67
Value
$196.06
PnL
+$14.4
Record
48%
2039-2213 (4252)
Both legs:
Invested
$180.87
Value
$180.18
PnL
-$0.69
Record
48%
2079-2257 (4336)
Both legs:
Invested
$80.19
Value
$80.23
PnL
+$0.04
Record
51%
27916-27361 (55277)
Invested
$128.98
Value
$68.25
PnL
+$7.71
Record
52%
27099-24604 (51703)
Invested
$63.34
Value
$64.45
PnL
+$1.11
Record
48%
2032-2230 (4262)
Both legs:
Invested
$26.58
Value
$26.01
PnL
-$0.57
Record
46%
1957-2309 (4266)
dips.<$100Invested
$1.02
Value
$18.02
PnL
+$17
Record
46%
12026-13917 (25943)
nigiri99<$100Invested
$9.1
Value
$17.15
PnL
+$8.05
Record
45%
14412-17706 (32118)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
33.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
Flaznorp
ARBArbitrage — excluded
GoalLineGhost
ARBArbitrage — excluded
RN1
CTRManchester United FC — $1.0K
Kaczka
Aston Villa FC — $903.33
38791873984189
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Anon455
ARBArbitrage — excluded
SnakeBall
ARBArbitrage — excluded
LuckyLoo
CTRManchester United FC — $433.54
omnibus-076daa
Aston Villa FC — $300.53
Limousin
Aston Villa FC — $251.92