Manchester United FC leading at halftime?
12 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
12
No 100%
$2.0K
$5.15
75.8¢ → 100¢
+32% since entry · 12 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
12 of 12 top traders (100%)7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 65.2¢ | $118.62 | $1.1K | -$32.41 | 51% 46870-44196 (91066) |
LI Limousin | Noavg 93.9¢ | $229.81 | $236.55 | +$6.74 | 49% 2102-2190 (4292) |
 RN1 | Noavg 95.3¢ | $212.57 | $209.54 | -$3.03 | 53% 70164-61737 (131901) |
MI MinevaJ | Noavg 93.7¢ | $117.12 | $124.93 | +$7.81 | 56% 1205-933 (2138) |
VE Venusian | Noavg 98.1¢ | $102.3 | $94.37 | -$7.93 | 48% 2079-2257 (4336) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Noavg 61¢ | $64.1 | $54.17 | +$15.06 | 50% 32540-32687 (65227) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 97.3¢ | $38.88 | $39.94 | +$1.06 | 48% 2032-2230 (4262) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Noavg 62¢ | $37.21 | $30.88 | +$7.81 | 50% 23433-23429 (46862) |
 dips.<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $18.24 | $21.24 | +$3 | 46% 12026-13917 (25943) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 95.4¢ | $19.09 | $20 | +$0.91 | 48% 2039-2213 (4252) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 61¢ | $50.74 | $17.65 | +$5.06 | 59% 52299-37045 (89344) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 64¢ | $5 | $4.25 | +$1.05 | 51% 27916-27361 (55277) |
Invested
$118.62
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$32.41
Record
51%
46870-44196 (91066)
Invested
$229.81
Value
$236.55
PnL
+$6.74
Record
49%
2102-2190 (4292)
RN1Invested
$212.57
Value
$209.54
PnL
-$3.03
Record
53%
70164-61737 (131901)
Invested
$117.12
Value
$124.93
PnL
+$7.81
Record
56%
1205-933 (2138)
Invested
$102.3
Value
$94.37
PnL
-$7.93
Record
48%
2079-2257 (4336)
Invested
$64.1
Value
$54.17
PnL
+$15.06
Record
50%
32540-32687 (65227)
Invested
$38.88
Value
$39.94
PnL
+$1.06
Record
48%
2032-2230 (4262)
Invested
$37.21
Value
$30.88
PnL
+$7.81
Record
50%
23433-23429 (46862)
dips.<$100Invested
$18.24
Value
$21.24
PnL
+$3
Record
46%
12026-13917 (25943)
Invested
$19.09
Value
$20
PnL
+$0.91
Record
48%
2039-2213 (4252)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$50.74
Value
$17.65
PnL
+$5.06
Record
59%
52299-37045 (89344)
Invested
$5
Value
$4.25
PnL
+$1.05
Record
51%
27916-27361 (55277)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.