Exact Score: Manchester United FC 3 - 3 Aston Villa FC?
8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 100¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
12
No 67%
$6.2K
-$173.05
93.8¢ → 100¢
+7% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 76%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 97.5¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | -$35.79 | 59% 52299-37045 (89344) |
 RN1 | Noavg 85.5¢ | $1.2K | $1.4K | +$207.94 | 53% 70164-61737 (131901) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 97.6¢ | $1.4K | $1.3K | -$10.95 | 50% 48537-48152 (96689) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 89.9¢ | $688.22 | $765.3 | +$77.08 | 48% 70219-75923 (146142) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 97.5¢ | $480.03 | $464.92 | -$2.15 | 57% 22219-16567 (38786) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 97.5¢ | $467.52 | $453.49 | -$2.34 | 57% 22329-16593 (38922) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 94.1¢ | $93.04 | $65.74 | -$27.3 | 48% 2079-2257 (4336) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Noavg 85.4¢ | $10.7 | $12.03 | +$1.33 | 51% 46870-44196 (91066) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Yesavg 2.2¢ | $242.18 | $7.63 | +$2.3 | 46% 30563-35669 (66232) |
MA MadridTimeCTR | Yesavg 14.5¢ | $212.84 | $5.71 | -$207.13 | 48% 2032-2230 (4262) |
LI LimousinCTR | Yesavg 6.9¢ | $118.2 | $0.86 | -$117.34 | 49% 2102-2190 (4292) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13.9¢ | $58.91 | $0.21 | -$58.7 | 48% 2039-2213 (4252) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,746.06
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$35.79
Record
59%
52299-37045 (89344)
RN1Invested
$1,225.93
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$207.94
Record
53%
70164-61737 (131901)
Invested
$1,369.16
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$10.95
Record
50%
48537-48152 (96689)
Invested
$688.22
Value
$765.3
PnL
+$77.08
Record
48%
70219-75923 (146142)
Invested
$480.03
Value
$464.92
PnL
-$2.15
Record
57%
22219-16567 (38786)
Invested
$467.52
Value
$453.49
PnL
-$2.34
Record
57%
22329-16593 (38922)
Invested
$93.04
Value
$65.74
PnL
-$27.3
Record
48%
2079-2257 (4336)
Invested
$10.7
Value
$12.03
PnL
+$1.33
Record
51%
46870-44196 (91066)
Invested
$242.18
Value
$7.63
PnL
+$2.3
Record
46%
30563-35669 (66232)
Invested
$212.84
Value
$5.71
PnL
-$207.13
Record
48%
2032-2230 (4262)
Invested
$118.2
Value
$0.86
PnL
-$117.34
Record
49%
2102-2190 (4292)
Invested
$58.91
Value
$0.21
PnL
-$58.7
Record
48%
2039-2213 (4252)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.