Exact Score: Manchester United FC 2 - 3 Aston Villa FC?
5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 86¢ · $901 held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 50%
$900.75
$18.34
95.3¢ → 86.5¢
-9% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NM NM-P | Noavg 96.6¢ | $303.14 | $290.41 | -$0.04 | 57% 22329-16593 (38922) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 96.6¢ | $279.61 | $267.87 | -$2.35 | 57% 22219-16567 (38786) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 96.7¢ | $146.32 | $140.18 | +$0 | 50% 48537-48152 (96689) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Noavg 86.5¢ | $86.5 | $86.4 | -$0.1 | 51% 46870-44196 (91066) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.2¢ | $52.83 | $65.57 | +$12.74 | 53% 70164-61737 (131901) |
LO lovedudleyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $18.23 | $26.69 | +$8.46 | 25% 1311-3950 (5261) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13.7¢ | $12.26 | $12.27 | +$0.01 | 48% 2039-2213 (4252) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 86.8¢ | $7.07 | $6.98 | -$0.09 | 48% 2079-2257 (4336) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13.9¢ | $2.78 | $2.74 | -$0.04 | 49% 2102-2190 (4292) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13.7¢ | $1.9 | $1.65 | -$0.25 | 48% 2032-2230 (4262) |
Invested
$303.14
Value
$290.41
PnL
-$0.04
Record
57%
22329-16593 (38922)
Invested
$279.61
Value
$267.87
PnL
-$2.35
Record
57%
22219-16567 (38786)
Invested
$146.32
Value
$140.18
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
48537-48152 (96689)
Invested
$86.5
Value
$86.4
PnL
-$0.1
Record
51%
46870-44196 (91066)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$52.83
Value
$65.57
PnL
+$12.74
Record
53%
70164-61737 (131901)
Invested
$18.23
Value
$26.69
PnL
+$8.46
Record
25%
1311-3950 (5261)
Invested
$12.26
Value
$12.27
PnL
+$0.01
Record
48%
2039-2213 (4252)
Invested
$7.07
Value
$6.98
PnL
-$0.09
Record
48%
2079-2257 (4336)
Invested
$2.78
Value
$2.74
PnL
-$0.04
Record
49%
2102-2190 (4292)
Invested
$1.9
Value
$1.65
PnL
-$0.25
Record
48%
2032-2230 (4262)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.