Exact Score: Manchester United FC 2 - 2 Aston Villa FC?

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (29%) · No at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 8

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 29%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

$18.79

Smart Money Entry

89¢ → 100¢

+12% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares2,459

Combined PnL+$237.8

Yes5 traders

Total Value$137.52

Total Shares3,786

Combined PnL-$219.01

No — 29%Yes — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Noavg 88.8¢	$2.1K	$2.3K	+$241.55	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 92¢	$150	$134.25	-$3.75	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
LO lovedudleyCTR	Yesavg 1.4¢	$38.89	$100	+$61.11	25% 1311-3950 (5261)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$37.72	$36.27	-$1.45	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
VE VenusianCTR	Yesavg 12.1¢	$220.92	$0.91	-$220.01	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.3¢	$34.79	$0.24	-$34.55	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.4¢	$24.21	$0.1	-$24.11	51% 46870-44196 (91066)

RN1

Invested

$2,066.63

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$241.55

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$150

Value

$134.25

PnL

-$3.75

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

lovedudleyCTR

Yes

Invested

$38.89

Value

$100

PnL

+$61.11

Record

25%

1311-3950 (5261)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.72

Value

$36.27

PnL

-$1.45

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

VenusianCTR

Yes

Invested

$220.92

Value

$0.91

PnL

-$220.01

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.79

Value

$0.24

PnL

-$34.55

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.21

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$24.11

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.