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5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 8

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$8.4K

Combined PnL

$549.44

Smart Money Entry

89.6¢ → 100¢

+12% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$8.4K

Total Shares8,360

Combined PnL+$883.34

Yes5 traders

Total Value$78.02

Total Shares6,350

Combined PnL-$333.9

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI LightParadox	Noavg 89.8¢	$3.1K	$3.4K	+$348.2	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
VE Venusian	Noavg 89.5¢	$681.01	$2.1K	+$221.85	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
LI Limousin	Noavg 89.5¢	$351.23	$1.3K	+$135.71	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 89.5¢	$855.16	$1.1K	+$121.72	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
NM NM-P	Noavg 88.7¢	$442.43	$498.28	+$55.86	57% 22329-16593 (38922)
LO lovedudleyCTR	Yesavg 1.4¢	$1.0K	$70	+$86.11	25% 1311-3950 (5261)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$45.82	$5.76	-$40.06	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
DA darkumbreon88CTR	Yesavg 10¢	$380.5	$1.9	-$378.6	65% 2130-1169 (3299)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$5	$0.35	-$0.2	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$1.15	$0.01	-$1.15	51% 46870-44196 (91066)

LightParadox

Invested

$3,067.93

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$348.2

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

Venusian

Invested

$681.01

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$221.85

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

Limousin

Invested

$351.23

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$135.71

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

MadridTime

Invested

$855.16

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$121.72

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

NM-P

Invested

$442.43

Value

$498.28

PnL

+$55.86

Record

57%

22329-16593 (38922)

lovedudleyCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,000

Value

$70

PnL

+$86.11

Record

25%

1311-3950 (5261)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.82

Value

$5.76

PnL

-$40.06

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

darkumbreon88CTR

Yes

Invested

$380.5

Value

$1.9

PnL

-$378.6

Record

65%

2130-1169 (3299)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.35

PnL

-$0.2

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.15

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.15

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.