Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (68%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-11-21?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 33¢ · $207 held · ends Nov 21
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$207.24
$1.56
Research grade
NeutralNo at 33%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 68%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
E9 0xe907...cff6<$100 | Yesavg 68¢ | $97.47 | $92.43 | -$2.83 | — |
GC GC-PCTR<$100 | Noavg 32¢ | $33.72 | $35.83 | +$2.11 | 21% 100-384 (484) |
NM NM-PCTR<$100 | Noavg 32¢ | $33.71 | $35.82 | +$2.11 | 59% 3479-2370 (5849) |
AA 0xaa3c...5607<$100 | Yesavg 68¢ | $35.02 | $34.76 | -$0.26 | — |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Noavg 32¢ | $7.96 | $8.4 | +$0.44 | 51% 1925-1866 (3791) |
Invested
$97.47
Value
$92.43
PnL
-$2.83
Record
—
Invested
$33.72
Value
$35.83
PnL
+$2.11
Record
21%
100-384 (484)
Invested
$33.71
Value
$35.82
PnL
+$2.11
Record
59%
3479-2370 (5849)
Invested
$35.02
Value
$34.76
PnL
-$0.26
Record
—
Invested
$7.96
Value
$8.4
PnL
+$0.44
Record
51%
1925-1866 (3791)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
32.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.