Manchester City FC vs. Coventry City FC: O/U 4.5

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 98¢ · $7K held · ended Sep 5

Over2¢Under98¢Ended Sat, Sep 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 40%

Total Value

$6.7K

Combined PnL

$7.5K

Smart Money Entry

70.9¢ → 98.5¢

+39% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over2%

Under98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$6.7K

Total Shares6,796

Combined PnL+$7.9K

Over3 traders

Total Value$41.66

Total Shares2,369

Combined PnL-$359.45

Under — 40%Over — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrOver 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 70.8¢	$18.2K	$6.7K	+$7.9K	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 26¢	$759.17	$24.07	-$276.69	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 79.5¢	$31.93	$21.67	-$4.01	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR<$100	Overavg 11¢	$70.5	$9.94	-$60.55	42% 8192-11384 (19576)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 6.1¢	$29.85	$7.64	-$22.21	53% 63014-55227 (118241)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$18,212.63

Value

$6.7K

PnL

+$7.9K

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$759.17

Value

$24.07

PnL

-$276.69

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$31.93

Value

$21.67

PnL

-$4.01

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

ferrariChampions2026CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$70.5

Value

$9.94

PnL

-$60.55

Record

42%

8192-11384 (19576)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$29.85

Value

$7.64

PnL

-$22.21

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrOver 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.5%

98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.