Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-11-01?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 67¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$1.4K
$2.4
67.2¢ → 66.5¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 67%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 62%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 67.2¢ | $546.77 | $548.97 | +$2.2 | 58% 41580-30193 (71773) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 67¢ | $303.63 | $304.07 | +$0.44 | 46% 8071-9516 (17587) |
AN AnonymousUsername | Noavg 67¢ | $282.72 | $282.72 | -$0 | 45% 676-832 (1508) |
 fyrsken | Noavg 68¢ | $135.99 | $134.99 | -$1 | 49% 276-287 (563) |
OD Oddstorm | Noavg 67¢ | $101.86 | $101.86 | +$0.76 | 38% 383-624 (1007) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$546.77
Value
$548.97
PnL
+$2.2
Record
58%
41580-30193 (71773)
Invested
$303.63
Value
$304.07
PnL
+$0.44
Record
46%
8071-9516 (17587)
Invested
$282.72
Value
$282.72
PnL
-$0
Record
45%
676-832 (1508)
fyrskenInvested
$135.99
Value
$134.99
PnL
-$1
Record
49%
276-287 (563)
Invested
$101.86
Value
$101.86
PnL
+$0.76
Record
38%
383-624 (1007)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.