Liverpool FC leading at halftime?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$1.6K
$111.38
91.6¢ → 100¢
+9% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 96¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$35.32 | 54% 57187-49444 (106631) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 76¢ | $267.9 | $345.45 | +$77.55 | 59% 46944-33223 (80167) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $95 | $99.95 | +$4.95 | 48% 8991-9637 (18628) |
0X 0xcba9371dcbbd7a48b477f04274376e1feea9f812CTR | Yesavg 27¢ | $27.78 | $22.22 | -$5.55 | 25% 97-288 (385) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $4.8 | $5 | +$0.2 | 36% 16083-28096 (44179) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27¢ | $5.42 | $4.34 | -$1.09 | 57% 29247-21632 (50879) |
RN1Invested
$1,129.23
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$35.32
Record
54%
57187-49444 (106631)
Invested
$267.9
Value
$345.45
PnL
+$77.55
Record
59%
46944-33223 (80167)
Invested
$95
Value
$99.95
PnL
+$4.95
Record
48%
8991-9637 (18628)
Invested
$27.78
Value
$22.22
PnL
-$5.55
Record
25%
97-288 (385)
Invested
$4.8
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.2
Record
36%
16083-28096 (44179)
Invested
$5.42
Value
$4.34
PnL
-$1.09
Record
57%
29247-21632 (50879)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.