Liverpool FC vs. Arsenal FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 100¢ · $14K held · ended Nov 1

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 75%

Total Value

$14.1K

Combined PnL

$3.5K

Smart Money Entry

65.9¢ → 100¢

+52% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$13.7K

Total Shares13,675

Combined PnL+$4.7K

Over2 traders

Total Value$439.75

Total Shares4,133

Combined PnL$-1.2K

Under — 75%Over — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Under 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 61.5¢	$5.3K	$8.6K	+$3.3K	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
DA dashattacker	Underavg 75.5¢	$3.6K	$4.8K	+$1.2K	72% 2545-973 (3518)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Overavg 34.8¢	$260.6	$276.37	+$15.77	48% 8991-9637 (18628)
HRTrading	Underavg 35.4¢	$74.81	$211.12	+$136.31	53% 5677-5082 (10759)
RN1CTR	Overavg 33.7¢	$1.3K	$163.38	$-1.2K	54% 57187-49444 (106631)
poshposh<$100	Underavg 37.5¢	$23.18	$61.79	+$38.6	58% 10691-7671 (18362)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Underavg 43¢	$8	$18.6	+$10.6	59% 30682-21402 (52084)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow<$100	Underavg 62¢	$1.63	$2.55	+$0.92	54% 4944-4172 (9116)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$5,281.97

Value

$8.6K

PnL

+$3.3K

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

dashattacker

Under

Invested

$3,617.8

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

72%

2545-973 (3518)

topdogbigboiCTR

Over

Invested

$260.6

Value

$276.37

PnL

+$15.77

Record

48%

8991-9637 (18628)

HRTrading

Under

Invested

$74.81

Value

$211.12

PnL

+$136.31

Record

53%

5677-5082 (10759)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$1,343.59

Value

$163.38

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

54%

57187-49444 (106631)

poshposh<$100

Under

Invested

$23.18

Value

$61.79

PnL

+$38.6

Record

58%

10691-7671 (18362)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$18.6

PnL

+$10.6

Record

59%

30682-21402 (52084)

WeBuyHighWeSelllow<$100

Under

Invested

$1.63

Value

$2.55

PnL

+$0.92

Record

54%

4944-4172 (9116)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Under 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.