Leeds United FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 5.5

1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (13%) · Under at 96¢ · $24K held · ends Nov 7

Over5¢Under95¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 13%

Total Value

$24.1K

Combined PnL

-$180.55

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over5%

Under96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under1 trader

Total Value$23.0K

Total Shares24,457

Combined PnL-$122.26

Over7 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares23,068

Combined PnL-$58.29

Under — 13%Over — 87%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Over 83% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x127e88ca7f26b32be5ff2b005c5478cbd3833dd8	Underavg 95.2¢	$23.3K	$23.0K	-$122.26	66% 250-131 (381)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 5¢	$573.16	$515.84	-$57.32	51% 27202-25761 (52963)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Overavg 5¢	$353.65	$353.65	+$0	49% 14981-15890 (30871)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Overavg 5¢	$138	$138	+$0.05	50% 28918-28732 (57650)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 5¢	$51.7	$51.7	+$0	50% 26397-26018 (52415)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Overavg 5¢	$30	$30	+$0	51% 2057-1996 (4053)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Overavg 5¢	$9.05	$8.15	-$0.91	46% 8769-10462 (19231)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 5.2¢	$2.66	$2.54	-$0.12	48% 1767-1905 (3672)

0x127e88ca7f26b32be5ff2b005c5478cbd3833dd8

Under

Invested

$23,292.31

Value

$23.0K

PnL

-$122.26

Record

66%

250-131 (381)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$573.16

Value

$515.84

PnL

-$57.32

Record

51%

27202-25761 (52963)

LuckyLooCTR

Over

Invested

$353.65

Value

$353.65

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

14981-15890 (30871)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Over

Invested

$138

Value

$138

PnL

+$0.05

Record

50%

28918-28732 (57650)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$51.7

Value

$51.7

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

26397-26018 (52415)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$30

Value

$30

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

2057-1996 (4053)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.05

Value

$8.15

PnL

-$0.91

Record

46%

8769-10462 (19231)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.66

Value

$2.54

PnL

-$0.12

Record

48%

1767-1905 (3672)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Over 83% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.7%

95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.