Leeds United FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 4.5
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 87¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 50%
$5.4K
$4.03
88.2¢ → 86.5¢
-2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 87%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+7 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x127e88ca7f26b32be5ff2b005c5478cbd3833dd8 | Underavg 88.3¢ | $4.6K | $4.5K | -$25.99 | 66% 250-131 (381) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Overavg 12¢ | $374.9 | $390.52 | +$15.62 | 51% 26991-25572 (52563) |
DV dv-pmCTR | Overavg 12.5¢ | $319.48 | $318.77 | +$12.75 | 48% 3364-3589 (6953) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 86.1¢ | $134.12 | $134.7 | +$0.58 | 50% 28862-28672 (57534) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 87¢ | $28.29 | $28.42 | +$0.13 | 58% 21639-15721 (37360) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Underavg 87¢ | $6.27 | $6.49 | +$0.29 | 50% 26346-25970 (52316) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Overavg 11¢ | $4.78 | $5.43 | +$0.65 | 48% 62298-67159 (129457) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Overavg 12.5¢ | $1.45 | $1.45 | -$0 | 49% 1756-1850 (3606) |
Invested
$4,589.92
Value
$4.5K
PnL
-$25.99
Record
66%
250-131 (381)
Invested
$374.9
Value
$390.52
PnL
+$15.62
Record
51%
26991-25572 (52563)
Invested
$319.48
Value
$318.77
PnL
+$12.75
Record
48%
3364-3589 (6953)
Invested
$134.12
Value
$134.7
PnL
+$0.58
Record
50%
28862-28672 (57534)
Invested
$28.29
Value
$28.42
PnL
+$0.13
Record
58%
21639-15721 (37360)
Invested
$6.27
Value
$6.49
PnL
+$0.29
Record
50%
26346-25970 (52316)
Invested
$4.78
Value
$5.43
PnL
+$0.65
Record
48%
62298-67159 (129457)
Invested
$1.45
Value
$1.45
PnL
-$0
Record
49%
1756-1850 (3606)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.