Leeds United FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5

4 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Over (29%) · Over at 51¢ · $88K held · ends Nov 7

Over51¢Under49¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 29%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$88.1K

Combined PnL

$-3.0K

Smart Money Entry

50.1¢ → 50.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 14 top traders (29%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over51%

Under50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$49.1K

Total Shares100,753

Combined PnL$-1.8K

Under10 traders

Total Value$36.8K

Total Shares74,085

Combined PnL$-1.2K

Over — 29%Under — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa	Overavg 50.2¢	$42.5K	$40.6K	$-1.9K	50% 21519-21799 (43318)
ND ndb1CTR	Underavg 51¢	$31.2K	$30.3K	-$918.36	64% 1055-598 (1653)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Overavg 50¢	$4.8K	$4.8K	+$6.84	42% 8116-11310 (19426)
nigiri99CTR	Underavg 52.8¢	$3.5K	$3.3K	-$220.91	46% 8745-10440 (19185)
VE Venusian	Overavg 49.2¢	$2.6K	$2.5K	+$26.37	49% 1790-1872 (3662)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Underavg 50¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$23.5	64% 10163-5703 (15866)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$587.5	$611	+$23.5
└ Over leg	Overavg 48¢	$586.45	$586.45	+$0
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 48.5¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$47.99	50% 28862-28672 (57534)
WA WarriorHCTR	Underavg 51¢	$1.1K	$998.12	-$30.37	17% 1379-6707 (8086)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 50.5¢	$970.11	$956.4	-$13.71	48% 62298-67159 (129457)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 50.3¢	$1.1K	$742.51	+$0.31	58% 47408-34193 (81601)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Underavg 50¢	$678.99	$693.99	+$15	64% 10165-5759 (15924)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$375	$390	+$15
└ Over leg	Overavg 48¢	$303.99	$303.99	-$0
SE sentrioARB<$100	Overavg 48¢	$345.4	$345.4	+$0	50% 26346-25970 (52316)
└ Over leg	Overavg 48¢	$270.46	$270.46	+$0
└ Under leg	Underavg 52¢	$74.94	$74.94	+$0
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Underavg 51¢	$306	$312	+$6	51% 2045-1974 (4019)
0xheavy888CTR	Underavg 50¢	$200	$198	-$2	56% 8185-6496 (14681)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 51¢	$16.69	$16.2	-$0.49	58% 21639-15721 (37360)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 51¢	$2.58	$3.67	+$0.06	51% 26991-25572 (52563)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 51¢	$2.55	$2.48	-$0.07	52% 8958-8128 (17086)

omnibus-076daa

Over

Invested

$42,479.39

Value

$40.6K

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

50%

21519-21799 (43318)

ndb1CTR

Under

Invested

$31,224.24

Value

$30.3K

PnL

-$918.36

Record

64%

1055-598 (1653)

ferrariChampions2026

Over

Invested

$4,798.55

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$6.84

Record

42%

8116-11310 (19426)

nigiri99CTR

Under

Invested

$3,485.93

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$220.91

Record

46%

8745-10440 (19185)

Venusian

Over

Invested

$2,596.36

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$26.37

Record

49%

1790-1872 (3662)

NM-PARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,173.95

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$23.5

Record

64%

10163-5703 (15866)

Both legs:

Invested

$1,149.28

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$47.99

Record

50%

28862-28672 (57534)

WarriorHCTR

Under

Invested

$1,078.05

Value

$998.12

PnL

-$30.37

Record

17%

1379-6707 (8086)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$970.11

Value

$956.4

PnL

-$13.71

Record

48%

62298-67159 (129457)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$1,148.34

Value

$742.51

PnL

+$0.31

Record

58%

47408-34193 (81601)

GC-PARB<$100

Under

Invested

$678.99

Value

$693.99

PnL

+$15

Record

64%

10165-5759 (15924)

Both legs:

Invested

$345.4

Value

$345.4

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

26346-25970 (52316)

Both legs:

Over$270.4648¢+$0

Under$74.9452¢+$0

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Under

Invested

$306

Value

$312

PnL

+$6

Record

51%

2045-1974 (4019)

0xheavy888CTR

Under

Invested

$200

Value

$198

PnL

-$2

Record

56%

8185-6496 (14681)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$16.69

Value

$16.2

PnL

-$0.49

Record

58%

21639-15721 (37360)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.58

Value

$3.67

PnL

+$0.06

Record

51%

26991-25572 (52563)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.55

Value

$2.48

PnL

-$0.07

Record

52%

8958-8128 (17086)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 51%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 14 top traders (29%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.