Leeds United FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 1.5

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (30%) · Over at 75¢ · $758 held · ends Nov 7

Over75¢Under25¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 30%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$758.33

Combined PnL

-$15.23

Smart Money Entry

75.6¢ → 74.5¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 10 top traders (30%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over75%

Under26%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$160.18

Total Shares208

Combined PnL-$0.37

Under7 traders

Total Value$283.93

Total Shares1,191

Combined PnL-$14.87

Over — 30%Under — 70%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 23¢	$290.61	$314.22	+$23.62	50% 28918-28732 (57650)
└ Under leg	Underavg 23¢	$209.08	$231.81	+$22.73
└ Over leg	Overavg 73.7¢	$81.53	$82.42	+$0.89
0xheavy888	Overavg 76¢	$131.8	$137.38	-$0.89	56% 8222-6527 (14749)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 24.3¢	$75.57	$79.18	+$3.61	51% 27202-25761 (52963)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 25.9¢	$86.26	$76.49	-$9.77	48% 1767-1905 (3672)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 25.9¢	$69.85	$61.94	-$7.91	50% 1843-1850 (3693)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Underavg 24¢	$21.88	$23.25	+$1.37	50% 21541-21839 (43380)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 26¢	$26	$23	-$0.5	51% 38217-37441 (75658)
VeryLucky888<$100	Overavg 73¢	$18.25	$19	+$0.38	58% 47486-34282 (81768)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 24.9¢	$13.06	$12.06	-$1	49% 1833-1925 (3758)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 24.9¢	$8.68	$8.01	-$0.67	49% 1791-1892 (3683)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Overavg 73¢	$3.65	$3.8	+$0.15	52% 9014-8167 (17181)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$290.61

Value

$314.22

PnL

+$23.62

Record

50%

28918-28732 (57650)

Both legs:

Under$209.0823¢+$22.73

Over$81.5373.7¢+$0.89

0xheavy888

Over

Invested

$131.8

Value

$137.38

PnL

-$0.89

Record

56%

8222-6527 (14749)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$75.57

Value

$79.18

PnL

+$3.61

Record

51%

27202-25761 (52963)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$86.26

Value

$76.49

PnL

-$9.77

Record

48%

1767-1905 (3672)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$69.85

Value

$61.94

PnL

-$7.91

Record

50%

1843-1850 (3693)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$21.88

Value

$23.25

PnL

+$1.37

Record

50%

21541-21839 (43380)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$26

Value

$23

PnL

-$0.5

Record

51%

38217-37441 (75658)

VeryLucky888<$100

Over

Invested

$18.25

Value

$19

PnL

+$0.38

Record

58%

47486-34282 (81768)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.06

Value

$12.06

PnL

-$1

Record

49%

1833-1925 (3758)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.68

Value

$8.01

PnL

-$0.67

Record

49%

1791-1892 (3683)

ameisgoat11<$100

Over

Invested

$3.65

Value

$3.8

PnL

+$0.15

Record

52%

9014-8167 (17181)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 75%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 10 top traders (30%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.4%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.