Spread: Tottenham Hotspur FC (-2.5)
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Leeds United FC (38%) · Leeds United FC at 97¢ · $379 held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Leeds United FC
8
Leeds United FC 38%
$379.43
$77.42
94¢ → 97¢
+3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralLeeds United FC at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189 | Leeds United FCavg 94.2¢ | $158.4 | $126.39 | +$2.47 | 48% 62393-67249 (129642) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Tottenham Hotspur FCavg 6.2¢ | $61.47 | $89.06 | +$27.59 | 50% 1843-1850 (3693) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Tottenham Hotspur FCavg 3.9¢ | $26.92 | $46 | +$19.08 | 53% 62307-54551 (116858) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Leeds United FCavg 93.5¢ | $43.15 | $39.46 | -$3.69 | 51% 27202-25761 (52963) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Tottenham Hotspur FCavg 6.2¢ | $24.49 | $35.48 | +$10.99 | 49% 1791-1892 (3683) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Tottenham Hotspur FCavg 5.7¢ | $7.93 | $20.16 | +$12.24 | 51% 38217-37441 (75658) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Tottenham Hotspur FCavg 6¢ | $6.6 | $16.03 | +$9.43 | 49% 1833-1925 (3758) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Leeds United FCavg 94.1¢ | $7.53 | $6.84 | -$0.69 | 54% 10448-8768 (19216) |
Invested
$158.4
Value
$126.39
PnL
+$2.47
Record
48%
62393-67249 (129642)
Invested
$61.47
Value
$89.06
PnL
+$27.59
Record
50%
1843-1850 (3693)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$26.92
Value
$46
PnL
+$19.08
Record
53%
62307-54551 (116858)
Invested
$43.15
Value
$39.46
PnL
-$3.69
Record
51%
27202-25761 (52963)
Invested
$24.49
Value
$35.48
PnL
+$10.99
Record
49%
1791-1892 (3683)
Invested
$7.93
Value
$20.16
PnL
+$12.24
Record
51%
38217-37441 (75658)
Invested
$6.6
Value
$16.03
PnL
+$9.43
Record
49%
1833-1925 (3758)
Invested
$7.53
Value
$6.84
PnL
-$0.69
Record
54%
10448-8768 (19216)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
38791873984189
Leeds United FC — $126.39
Limousin
CTRTottenham Hotspur FC — $89.06
RN1
CTRTottenham Hotspur FC — $46
Flaznorp
Leeds United FC — $39.46
LightParadox
CTRTottenham Hotspur FC — $35.48
SnakeBall
CTRTottenham Hotspur FC — $20.16
Venusian
CTRTottenham Hotspur FC — $16.03
Pan9X
Leeds United FC — $6.84