Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (66%). 8 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-11-07?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (73%) · Yes at 35¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 7

Yes35¢No65¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 73%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$5.64

Smart Money Entry

34.1¢ → 34.5¢

+1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 35%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors No 66%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes35%

No66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares3,725

Combined PnL+$11.51

No3 traders

Total Value$489.39

Total Shares753

Combined PnL-$5.87

Yes — 73%No — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (10 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 34¢	$525.99	$525.99	-$0	51% 26669-25270 (51939)
DA darkumbreon88	Noavg 66¢	$474.52	$467.33	-$7.19	64% 2022-1128 (3150)
NM NM-PCTR	Yesavg 33.9¢	$696.28	$242.65	+$4	64% 10113-5660 (15773)
GC GC-PCTR	Yesavg 33.5¢	$200.03	$203.02	+$2.99	64% 10131-5728 (15859)
LI LimousinCTR	Yesavg 35.1¢	$172.08	$166.58	+$2.45	51% 1749-1699 (3448)
SE sentrioCTR	Yesavg 34¢	$131.62	$133.49	+$1.87	50% 26223-25873 (52096)
38 38791873984189<$100	Noavg 61.6¢	$19.24	$20.31	+$1.22	48% 62058-66943 (129001)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Yesavg 34¢	$12.58	$12.58	+$0.19	48% 7430-7967 (15397)
PU purplegattoCTR<$100	Yesavg 35.1¢	$5.27	$5.1	+$0.08	49% 6360-6522 (12882)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 63¢	$1.7	$1.76	+$0.09	58% 47221-34058 (81279)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 35.1¢	$1.76	$1.7	-$0.06	49% 1721-1768 (3489)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$525.99

Value

$525.99

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

26669-25270 (51939)

darkumbreon88

Invested

$474.52

Value

$467.33

PnL

-$7.19

Record

64%

2022-1128 (3150)

NM-PCTR

Yes

Invested

$696.28

Value

$242.65

PnL

+$4

Record

64%

10113-5660 (15773)

GC-PCTR

Yes

Invested

$200.03

Value

$203.02

PnL

+$2.99

Record

64%

10131-5728 (15859)

LimousinCTR

Yes

Invested

$172.08

Value

$166.58

PnL

+$2.45

Record

51%

1749-1699 (3448)

sentrioCTR

Yes

Invested

$131.62

Value

$133.49

PnL

+$1.87

Record

50%

26223-25873 (52096)

38791873984189<$100

Invested

$19.24

Value

$20.31

PnL

+$1.22

Record

48%

62058-66943 (129001)

OddstormCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.58

Value

$12.58

PnL

+$0.19

Record

48%

7430-7967 (15397)

purplegattoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.27

Value

$5.1

PnL

+$0.08

Record

49%

6360-6522 (12882)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$1.7

Value

$1.76

PnL

+$0.09

Record

58%

47221-34058 (81279)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.76

Value

$1.7

PnL

-$0.06

Record

49%

1721-1768 (3489)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 35%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors No 66%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (10 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance36.6%

34.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$172.89

Max Loss

-$100.00

272.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.