Leeds United FC leading at halftime?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 90¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
$1.6K
$40.89
77.2¢ → 89.5¢
+16% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA MadridTime | Noavg 81.3¢ | $620.02 | $682.68 | +$62.65 | 48% 1767-1905 (3672) |
LI Limousin | Noavg 74.7¢ | $439.62 | $385.35 | -$54.26 | 50% 1843-1850 (3693) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 73.5¢ | $270.76 | $323.03 | +$52.27 | 51% 27202-25761 (52963) |
VE Venusian | Noavg 74.9¢ | $153.62 | $134.28 | -$19.35 | 49% 1833-1925 (3758) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Noavg 79.7¢ | $25.55 | $23.39 | -$2.16 | 50% 28918-28732 (57650) |
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 81¢ | $9.36 | $9.26 | -$0.11 | 53% 62307-54551 (116858) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 19.8¢ | $1.96 | $3.41 | +$1.46 | 49% 1791-1892 (3683) |
LR lryyyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15¢ | $1.65 | $2.04 | +$0.39 | 47% 9560-10672 (20232) |
Invested
$620.02
Value
$682.68
PnL
+$62.65
Record
48%
1767-1905 (3672)
Invested
$439.62
Value
$385.35
PnL
-$54.26
Record
50%
1843-1850 (3693)
Invested
$270.76
Value
$323.03
PnL
+$52.27
Record
51%
27202-25761 (52963)
Invested
$153.62
Value
$134.28
PnL
-$19.35
Record
49%
1833-1925 (3758)
Invested
$25.55
Value
$23.39
PnL
-$2.16
Record
50%
28918-28732 (57650)
RN1<$100Invested
$9.36
Value
$9.26
PnL
-$0.11
Record
53%
62307-54551 (116858)
Invested
$1.96
Value
$3.41
PnL
+$1.46
Record
49%
1791-1892 (3683)
Invested
$1.65
Value
$2.04
PnL
+$0.39
Record
47%
9560-10672 (20232)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.