Leeds United FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 63%
$2.7K
$446.81
78.2¢ → 100¢
+28% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 72.3¢ | $1.0K | $1.2K | +$180.99 | 51% 27202-25761 (52963) |
 RN1 | Underavg 85.2¢ | $713.87 | $800.14 | +$86.27 | 53% 62307-54551 (116858) |
SN SnakeBall | Underavg 83.1¢ | $481.34 | $550.32 | +$68.97 | 51% 38217-37441 (75658) |
38 38791873984189 | Underavg 69.4¢ | $349.59 | $165.65 | +$112.05 | 48% 62393-67249 (129642) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 9¢ | $2.91 | $3.07 | +$0.16 | 49% 14981-15890 (30871) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 67¢ | $3.62 | $2.84 | -$0.78 | 58% 21687-15792 (37479) |
 dips.CTR<$100 | Overavg 5.2¢ | $1.25 | $0.95 | -$0.29 | 47% 11018-12633 (23651) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Overavg 1¢ | $1.05 | $0.5 | -$0.55 | 49% 1791-1892 (3683) |
Invested
$1,036.65
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$180.99
Record
51%
27202-25761 (52963)
RN1Invested
$713.87
Value
$800.14
PnL
+$86.27
Record
53%
62307-54551 (116858)
Invested
$481.34
Value
$550.32
PnL
+$68.97
Record
51%
38217-37441 (75658)
Invested
$349.59
Value
$165.65
PnL
+$112.05
Record
48%
62393-67249 (129642)
Invested
$2.91
Value
$3.07
PnL
+$0.16
Record
49%
14981-15890 (30871)
Invested
$3.62
Value
$2.84
PnL
-$0.78
Record
58%
21687-15792 (37479)
dips.CTR<$100Invested
$1.25
Value
$0.95
PnL
-$0.29
Record
47%
11018-12633 (23651)
Invested
$1.05
Value
$0.5
PnL
-$0.55
Record
49%
1791-1892 (3683)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.