Exact Score: Leeds United FC 3 - 3 Tottenham Hotspur FC?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 100¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 7

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.6K

Combined PnL

$19.19

Smart Money Entry

99.4¢ → 99.6¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$10.5K

Total Shares10,434

Combined PnL+$37.84

Yes2 traders

Total Value$19.6

Total Shares1,128

Combined PnL-$18.65

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 99.8¢	$4.8K	$4.8K	-$13.63	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
RN1	Noavg 99.5¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	+$14.84	53% 62321-54560 (116881)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 98.6¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$36.3	51% 38228-37447 (75675)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 98.7¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$0.41	49% 14983-15895 (30878)
VE VenusianARB<$100	Noavg 99¢	$37.17	$49.99	+$12.88	49% 1843-1935 (3778)
└ No leg	Noavg 99¢	$28.44	$28.36	-$0.01
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 0.5¢	$8.73	$21.63	+$12.9
LI LightParadoxARB<$100	Noavg 99¢	$37.14	$47.81	+$10.72	49% 1800-1900 (3700)
└ No leg	Noavg 99¢	$27.05	$26.99	-$0.01
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 0.6¢	$10.09	$20.82	+$10.73
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$29.41	$29.44	+$0.03	58% 21689-15792 (37481)
RI RichieRicher<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$19.98	$19.91	-$0.07	54% 816-691 (1507)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 99¢	$13.35	$13.31	-$0.03	48% 1775-1911 (3686)
38 38791873984189CTR	Yesavg 2.6¢	$274.42	$13.25	-$18.34	48% 62396-67251 (129647)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$6.66	$6.35	-$0.31	50% 1850-1863 (3713)

Flaznorp

Invested

$4,789.77

Value

$4.8K

PnL

-$13.63

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

RN1

Invested

$3,114.3

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$14.84

Record

53%

62321-54560 (116881)

SnakeBall

Invested

$1,337.64

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$36.3

Record

51%

38228-37447 (75675)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$1,160.75

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$0.41

Record

49%

14983-15895 (30878)

VenusianARB<$100

Invested

$37.17

Value

$49.99

PnL

+$12.88

Record

49%

1843-1935 (3778)

Both legs:

No$28.4499¢-$0.01

Yes$8.730.5¢+$12.9

LightParadoxARB<$100

Invested

$37.14

Value

$47.81

PnL

+$10.72

Record

49%

1800-1900 (3700)

Both legs:

No$27.0599¢-$0.01

Yes$10.090.6¢+$10.73

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$29.41

Value

$29.44

PnL

+$0.03

Record

58%

21689-15792 (37481)

RichieRicher<$100

Invested

$19.98

Value

$19.91

PnL

-$0.07

Record

54%

816-691 (1507)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$13.35

Value

$13.31

PnL

-$0.03

Record

48%

1775-1911 (3686)

38791873984189CTR

Yes

Invested

$274.42

Value

$13.25

PnL

-$18.34

Record

48%

62396-67251 (129647)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.66

Value

$6.35

PnL

-$0.31

Record

50%

1850-1863 (3713)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.