Exact Score: Leeds United FC 2 - 3 Tottenham Hotspur FC?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 99¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
1 arb excluded
$3.8K
$-1.1K
97.2¢ → 99¢
+2% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 96.9¢ | $1.9K | $1.2K | -$668.21 | 58% 47486-34282 (81768) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 97.8¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$11.78 | 48% 62393-67249 (129642) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 97.1¢ | $1.3K | $854.36 | -$462.55 | 51% 38217-37441 (75658) |
MA MadridTime | Noavg 97.8¢ | $144.76 | $145.78 | +$1.02 | 48% 1767-1905 (3672) |
LI Limousin | Noavg 97.9¢ | $115.17 | $118.25 | +$3.08 | 50% 1843-1850 (3693) |
VE VenusianARB<$100 | Noavg 97.9¢ | $106.18 | $118.17 | +$11.99 | 49% 1833-1925 (3758) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 97.9¢ | $97.91 | $93.1 | -$4.81 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 2.3¢ | $8.28 | $25.07 | +$16.79 | |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 97.7¢ | $107.47 | $108.79 | +$1.32 | 51% 27202-25761 (52963) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.5¢ | $7.51 | $7.76 | +$0.25 | 53% 62307-54551 (116858) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.6¢ | $0.02 | $0.02 | +$0 | 49% 14981-15890 (30871) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,911.83
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$668.21
Record
58%
47486-34282 (81768)
Invested
$1,202.16
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$11.78
Record
48%
62393-67249 (129642)
Invested
$1,316.91
Value
$854.36
PnL
-$462.55
Record
51%
38217-37441 (75658)
Invested
$144.76
Value
$145.78
PnL
+$1.02
Record
48%
1767-1905 (3672)
Invested
$115.17
Value
$118.25
PnL
+$3.08
Record
50%
1843-1850 (3693)
Invested
$106.18
Value
$118.17
PnL
+$11.99
Record
49%
1833-1925 (3758)
Both legs:
Invested
$107.47
Value
$108.79
PnL
+$1.32
Record
51%
27202-25761 (52963)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$7.51
Value
$7.76
PnL
+$0.25
Record
53%
62307-54551 (116858)
Invested
$0.02
Value
$0.02
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
14981-15890 (30871)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.