Exact Score: Leeds United FC 1 - 2 Tottenham Hotspur FC?
7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 95¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 78%
$8.7K
-$471.94
92.5¢ → 94.5¢
+2% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VE Venusian | Noavg 92.8¢ | $2.7K | $2.8K | +$19.7 | 49% 1833-1925 (3758) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 92.8¢ | $1.6K | $1.5K | -$38.89 | 51% 27202-25761 (52963) |
LI Limousin | Noavg 94.2¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$2.48 | 50% 1843-1850 (3693) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 91.5¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$18.67 | 51% 38217-37441 (75658) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 91¢ | $1.5K | $1.1K | -$469.96 | 58% 47486-34282 (81768) |
 RN1CTR | Yesavg 7¢ | $424.19 | $393.89 | -$30.3 | 53% 62307-54551 (116858) |
MA MadridTime | Noavg 92.4¢ | $173.19 | $177.19 | +$4 | 48% 1767-1905 (3672) |
NM NM-P<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $66.22 | $45.85 | -$20.38 | 64% 10181-5719 (15900) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $651.14 | $40.12 | +$47.69 | 48% 62393-67249 (129642) |
Invested
$2,735.04
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$19.7
Record
49%
1833-1925 (3758)
Invested
$1,567.2
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$38.89
Record
51%
27202-25761 (52963)
Invested
$1,499.9
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$2.48
Record
50%
1843-1850 (3693)
Invested
$1,140.21
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$18.67
Record
51%
38217-37441 (75658)
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,532.49
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$469.96
Record
58%
47486-34282 (81768)
RN1CTRInvested
$424.19
Value
$393.89
PnL
-$30.3
Record
53%
62307-54551 (116858)
Invested
$173.19
Value
$177.19
PnL
+$4
Record
48%
1767-1905 (3672)
Invested
$66.22
Value
$45.85
PnL
-$20.38
Record
64%
10181-5719 (15900)
Invested
$651.14
Value
$40.12
PnL
+$47.69
Record
48%
62393-67249 (129642)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.