Will Leeds United FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw?

17 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold No (85%) · No at 66¢ · $47K held · ended Nov 7

Yes34¢No66¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 85%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$47.2K

Combined PnL

$-1.5K

Smart Money Entry

70.9¢ → 66¢

-7% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

17 of 20 top traders (85%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes34%

No66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No17 traders

Total Value$45.3K

Total Shares64,838

Combined PnL$-1.5K

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares3,595

Combined PnL+$13

No — 85%Yes — 15%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (3 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 3

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 70.9¢	$17.1K	$16.1K	-$964.2	51% 27202-25761 (52963)
AN Anon455	Noavg 71¢	$7.1K	$6.9K	-$250.57	55% 3804-3137 (6941)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 71¢	$6.7K	$6.7K	+$47.13	49% 14981-15890 (30871)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 71¢	$5.9K	$5.8K	-$125.64	50% 28918-28732 (57650)
NM NM-P	Noavg 71¢	$3.3K	$3.3K	+$26.42	64% 10181-5719 (15900)
GC GC-P	Noavg 71¢	$2.7K	$2.6K	-$131.8	64% 10178-5767 (15945)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 71¢	$1.2K	$997.5	-$62.62	58% 47486-34282 (81768)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 68.9¢	$928.81	$886.25	-$35.06	48% 62393-67249 (129642)
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Yesavg 34.1¢	$592.93	$564.62	-$28.32	57% 2109-1562 (3671)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 34.1¢	$344.43	$328.36	-$16.07
└ No leg	Noavg 71¢	$248.5	$236.25	-$12.25
VE VenusianCTR	Yesavg 33.2¢	$538.03	$543.07	+$5.04	49% 1833-1925 (3758)
LI LimousinCTR	Yesavg 32.5¢	$473.07	$473.08	+$0.01	50% 1843-1850 (3693)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Noavg 71¢	$426	$429	+$3	51% 2057-1996 (4053)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 70.2¢	$449.75	$425.77	-$23.98	52% 14650-13313 (27963)
PA Pan9X	Noavg 69¢	$441.64	$418.83	-$16.11	54% 10448-8768 (19216)
0xheavy888	Noavg 71¢	$284	$282	-$2	56% 8222-6527 (14749)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Yesavg 31¢	$160.54	$168.5	+$7.96	48% 1767-1905 (3672)
tradecraft	Noavg 71¢	$141.83	$138.83	-$3	51% 6512-6276 (12788)
RN1ARB<$100	Yesavg 33¢	$133.98	$131.25	-$2.73	53% 62307-54551 (116858)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 33¢	$73.39	$74.5	+$1.11
└ No leg	Noavg 71¢	$60.59	$56.75	-$3.84
GH ghorrock	Noavg 71¢	$124.98	$120.58	-$4.4	58% 21687-15792 (37479)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 71¢	$56.8	$54	-$2.8	53% 24340-21400 (45740)
PT PT-S7<$100	Noavg 68¢	$39.44	$39.15	-$0.29	49% 3280-3447 (6727)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Noavg 67.5¢	$20.25	$19.95	-$0.3	64% 5376-2994 (8370)

Flaznorp

Invested

$17,056.63

Value

$16.1K

PnL

-$964.2

Record

51%

27202-25761 (52963)

Anon455

Invested

$7,116.26

Value

$6.9K

PnL

-$250.57

Record

55%

3804-3137 (6941)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$6,693.06

Value

$6.7K

PnL

+$47.13

Record

49%

14981-15890 (30871)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$5,946.84

Value

$5.8K

PnL

-$125.64

Record

50%

28918-28732 (57650)

NM-P

Invested

$3,321.34

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$26.42

Record

64%

10181-5719 (15900)

GC-P

Invested

$2,720.31

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$131.8

Record

64%

10178-5767 (15945)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$1,201.66

Value

$997.5

PnL

-$62.62

Record

58%

47486-34282 (81768)

38791873984189

Invested

$928.81

Value

$886.25

PnL

-$35.06

Record

48%

62393-67249 (129642)

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$592.93

Value

$564.62

PnL

-$28.32

Record

57%

2109-1562 (3671)

Both legs:

Yes$344.4334.1¢-$16.07

No$248.571¢-$12.25

VenusianCTR

Yes

Invested

$538.03

Value

$543.07

PnL

+$5.04

Record

49%

1833-1925 (3758)

LimousinCTR

Yes

Invested

$473.07

Value

$473.08

PnL

+$0.01

Record

50%

1843-1850 (3693)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Invested

$426

Value

$429

PnL

+$3

Record

51%

2057-1996 (4053)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$449.75

Value

$425.77

PnL

-$23.98

Record

52%

14650-13313 (27963)

Pan9X

Invested

$441.64

Value

$418.83

PnL

-$16.11

Record

54%

10448-8768 (19216)

0xheavy888

Invested

$284

Value

$282

PnL

-$2

Record

56%

8222-6527 (14749)

MadridTimeCTR

Yes

Invested

$160.54

Value

$168.5

PnL

+$7.96

Record

48%

1767-1905 (3672)

tradecraft

Invested

$141.83

Value

$138.83

PnL

-$3

Record

51%

6512-6276 (12788)

RN1ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$133.98

Value

$131.25

PnL

-$2.73

Record

53%

62307-54551 (116858)

Both legs:

Yes$73.3933¢+$1.11

No$60.5971¢-$3.84

ghorrock

Invested

$124.98

Value

$120.58

PnL

-$4.4

Record

58%

21687-15792 (37479)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$56.8

Value

$54

PnL

-$2.8

Record

53%

24340-21400 (45740)

PT-S7<$100

Invested

$39.44

Value

$39.15

PnL

-$0.29

Record

49%

3280-3447 (6727)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Invested

$20.25

Value

$19.95

PnL

-$0.3

Record

64%

5376-2994 (8370)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 66%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

17 of 20 top traders (85%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (3 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 3

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.1%

66.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$46.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

146.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.