Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (57%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Leeds United FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: Both Teams to Score
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 43¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 57%
2 arb excluded
$1.3K
-$3.05
43.1¢ → 42.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 43%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 nigiri99ARB<$100 | Yesavg 56.4¢ | $859.34 | $860 | +$0.66 | 46% 8745-10440 (19185) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 56.4¢ | $465.9 | $474.95 | +$9.05 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 43.4¢ | $393.44 | $385.05 | -$8.39 | |
38 38791873984189CTR | Noavg 43.6¢ | $176.19 | $171.77 | -$4.42 | 48% 62298-67159 (129457) |
NM NM-PCTR | Noavg 42¢ | $125.18 | $126.67 | +$1.49 | 64% 10163-5703 (15866) |
 0xheavy888 | Yesavg 57¢ | $100.19 | $101.07 | +$0.88 | 56% 8185-6496 (14681) |
 VeryLucky888ARB<$100 | Yesavg 54¢ | $339.48 | $51.17 | -$4.74 | 58% 47408-34193 (81601) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 54¢ | $27.63 | $29.42 | +$0.77 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 43.9¢ | $22.44 | $21.75 | -$5.5 | |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Noavg 46.2¢ | $19.85 | $18.89 | -$0.96 | 50% 21519-21799 (43318) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Yesavg 56.2¢ | $2.81 | $2.8 | +$0.03 | 51% 26991-25572 (52563) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Yesavg 55¢ | $2.75 | $2.8 | +$0.03 | 50% 26346-25970 (52316) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Noavg 44¢ | $2.64 | $2.55 | -$0.09 | 54% 10365-8691 (19056) |
nigiri99ARB<$100Invested
$859.34
Value
$860
PnL
+$0.66
Record
46%
8745-10440 (19185)
Both legs:
Invested
$176.19
Value
$171.77
PnL
-$4.42
Record
48%
62298-67159 (129457)
Invested
$125.18
Value
$126.67
PnL
+$1.49
Record
64%
10163-5703 (15866)
0xheavy888Invested
$100.19
Value
$101.07
PnL
+$0.88
Record
56%
8185-6496 (14681)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100Invested
$339.48
Value
$51.17
PnL
-$4.74
Record
58%
47408-34193 (81601)
Both legs:
Invested
$19.85
Value
$18.89
PnL
-$0.96
Record
50%
21519-21799 (43318)
Invested
$2.81
Value
$2.8
PnL
+$0.03
Record
51%
26991-25572 (52563)
Invested
$2.75
Value
$2.8
PnL
+$0.03
Record
50%
26346-25970 (52316)
Invested
$2.64
Value
$2.55
PnL
-$0.09
Record
54%
10365-8691 (19056)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.